Very impressive returns on radar right now with very heavy snow being reported in some locations. the heavier snow bands will continue to intensify with steep mid level lapse rates around 6C/Km. In addition we are seeing an increase in EPV across DE/N MD into SW NJ where the bands continue to intensify. Expect this to continue for a while with a more impressive display around 11pm. The coastal low is currently at 999mb but as it pulls away we will see a very intense band of snow (most likely in NJ). Given current radar trends this could include more areas to the west, but most other indications suggest that PA will miss out on this very heavy banding around 11pm. But keep sharing observations!
Funny story related to all of this. I know an Iraqi family that emigrated to Coatesville in June of last year. Since then I have been telling them "Wait till you see the snow." I just spoke to their father, and he said to me "Joe, does it ever snow enough to cover the grass?" I just burst out laughing.
I think the TV mets have been more accurate by accident...their nature is to be conservative. Sometimes I feel the mets on here feel the pressure to be a little bullish of snow totals. Rob has been pretty good and tells it like it is tho. I don't think his snowmap had anything over 3 inches. But a snow fall prediction has to be over a large area. It's impossible to say the area code of 19010 will get nothing and the intersection of Bustleton Pike and Red Lion Rd will get 2.5 inches. Without a cold air supply, the rain/snow line has literally been a few miles. It's not that the models have been over-forecasting, it's the interpretation of those models. Rob always says he is using a blend of this or that model suite. You can't take a model output as gospel.
Scootch, understood -- but it's not just the TV mets who have been over-forecasting lately. The mets here have been doing so, too. No one seems to be able to get these storms right, for some reason.
If we only followed the models, we should find that sometimes the models over-forecast, sometime they under-forecast, and sometimes they're quite accurate. But this year, the models have been consistently over-forecasting for this area. Is it just a run of bad luck? Or are the models (as well as the mets) constantly assuming that the cold air will make it into this area for some reason?
Most of the evening over here in Ocean County it has been moderate to heavy snow, the snow has been very wet, it has been melting as it piled up, otherwise we would have at least 4-6".
Instead 2-3" in various spots main roads were and are still snow covered. The temp has been just around 33* most of this event, just slipped a little more down to 32.7*.
The snow was so heavy that it could not melt and was actually coming down so fast it would pile up even as it was partially melting, I would say it was recharging the accums and keeping the ground covered, it happened quick and remains steady snow at this time.
The roads were quickly covered and route 9 and other main roads have been covered all evening.
Temperatures with this event were always a merginal issue but, The advisory was correct for at least my area.
I get aggravated watching the Philly Mets saying accums mainly on grass and driveways, that is a flat out wrong statement to make as an assumption.
Tommy....it's a matter of not looking at the models verbatim and only using them as a guide. When looking at potential snowfall, many make the mistake of just looking at model data and not taking into consideration the current pattern. We have not had a good supply of cold air but we have had a very progressive flow. That is not a good pattern for significant snow. There are many factors that must be considered when predicting a snowfall amount, not just that the ABC model shows 3-6".
i guess i have the best snowfall getting around 1.5 with steady snow still, so far looking at snow shower development west of harrisburg this could give us and extra coating if it hits us early in the morning but it's unlikly a few hours left in this storm and its gone but have fun with whatever you get
It was a big improvement, just south of philly into delaware get about 4-6" of snow on this run and Maine gets 8-12". I understand no one cares about Maine, but it's the fact that previous runs showed an inch or two at best for both areas.
Phil: exactly! This winter season is making no sense (yet). Would love to see Mike/Rob/anyone theorize why we keep seeing early radar that points to AT LEAST the predicted snowfall amounts (if not more), yet ultimately yielding disappointing snowfalls.