With the new models rolling in tonight, it seems so far as if this new storm for Presidents day is rising in strength. We should definetly take this seriously, but don't get your hopes up yet for anither major storm. So far,
The storm is playing hide and seek with the models, but now the Euro sees it thats very important. The king has it on the board although way out to sea. I have a great title for this storm and it should be called Dejavu or Dejavue because the same thing that happened with Nemo probably will happen with the this storm but I wonder what would be the name for it. Anyway I believe the models will draw this storm closer to the coast beginning with the Wed 00z computer models. Remember the GFS has a habit of flashing solutions 7 days out of the event. It did it with sandy, it did it with memo and I believe it just did it again. It's still to fr out for other models to latch on.
Tim I think we really should wait till the energy is onshore to make a call, it being so far away! And the fact that some models have it close to shore one literally inland, means that at some point the gfs and euro should trend back, and btw watch the link I posted
Exactly snowslaughter. I think no offense but it is ludicrous to post snow totals about 5 days in advance, with so little known. Also you have to remember the models have not been amazing with energy out of the sw, also the energy is out in the upper pacific, I think Thursday ooz runs we will have w much better idea. The fact that the ukmet, nogaps and fim all have major blizzards is encouraging. Also the ggem is inland! So there will definitely be trending toward the coast with gfs and euro.
The main potential for this weekend is the triple phase. Its very hard to sample data on the arctic jet which is why we wont know whats going to happen this weekend until that peice of energy is in a better sampling area. probably wed-thursday. Right now, we just want to see that the players are there and then worry about how they interact
Tim....just watch what happens as the models bring this baby back. They are not calculating in all the warmth ahead of the cold. Way warmer today and will stay that way through Friday. The more rain we get tomorrow and the less snow will show the models cold bias and lead to a nice setup this weekend.
Route for rain tomorrow and you shall have snow with cold air invading this weekend!
Put that in your palm pilot and smoke it! Get some snow this weekend!