UPDATE: MAP below stays the same, but expecting to bust on the western side of Phily in the current 2-4" range - I think that side drops to the C-2 range. Draw a line from York to Scranton - that's the cutoff line I'm talking about.
Tonight is about nowcasting and especially critical thickness. Check out the following radar:
It's 38 in Louisville - but supportive of snow. Difference is it's morning, so temps will warm. Storm hits us tonight so temps will fall - but same challenge.
So this will be a fun storm (is it really a storm?) to watch play out and totals map will look crazy in the end. 0" one place, 2-3" 10 miles away.
I won't change this map, but will list why I have it this way and things that can make it better or worse.
I can see the storm moving faster like GFS versus NAM, so not enough time to drop temps and get a lot of snow
1. Models are missing current performance of system in the south, precip is bigger and higher - could increase totals if temps crash faster
2. System is tapping into the warmer moisture which can make it even harder for the changeover to occur - could lessen totals - however see point above
3. Temps today, tonight and tomorrow will make it challenging as the storm itself will also bring up warm air, w/o the west wind it would feel really warm out today! - so changeover is concerning
4. Further north, the better, but less QPF, however, see my second/third points - so this is one where it can play out better for some
5. Wildcard area is based on pace of storm, more precip coming with it, ability to throw back some qpf, and how fast temps crash.
Bottom line - leaning more towards Euro/GFS, but allowing for additional qpf (larger precip field) based on models missing current radar.
Southern parts of totals will be towards the lower number - I know, statting the obvious
No doubt nowcasting should begin now in parallel with additional model runs.
Regarding PD - not over yet, and not surprising me given the model mayhem this year - it will drive us nuts over the next 3 days. Euro today was an improvement over the last few days. More like it's run on 2/8. Thursday night 00Z runs will be where I either start ditching the potential or fine tuning a hopefully big storm.
Sgt - you would think. Last winter was clear - pattern just sucked and we got warm dry results. This year is crazy.. I've been looking at models for years now, learning more and more, and I don't recall anything like this year, especially with the model madness!
STJ needs to make amends with the polar jet and make a monster baby for us!
At least we have things to look at, discuss and debate this year!
Good info snowtrain. I'm not giving up on the weekend, but a lot has to happen quickly for that to play out, so we'll see. I do like next week in general as stated in previous posts - especially as the NAO is finally coming around - so it's really good to see the potential on the models.
I see the precip is still looking good qpf wise I"m just thinking rain now snow for most of the storm. I really think it's the pattern setting up that will crush us this weekend.
If this storm were to be snow followed by cold air it will force the next one east. Warmth stays around and the cold comes we have a bomb on our hands waiting to go off. Lets just hope it right where we want it.
Look at what happened in NE last Friday. Atmosphere is ripe and we just need the timing. Nothing is guaranteed but I think strong potential is there. We had our cold and suppression in January and now we may get cold and moisture to collide. Keep the faith!
It really feels warm out today when the breeze stops. Almost 60 in places just to my south according to Weather Underground. I really think the warmth is more than the models are seeing on this first storm as no cold air follows this for the rest of this week. I'm thinking well NW of Philly is only areas that see snow due to warmth.
Now before everyone screams about no snow I also think that this same warmth now and this little VD event leads to the models coming back with the big storm this weekend. I think they are overdoing the cold and the front will be stalled along the coast allowing a storm to ride up it. I think this weekend is game on with actual cold air pushing in and the moisture and warmth ahead of it. I think the smaller this first storm is the better the weekend is for us.
Just my thoughts but I'm routing for rain tomorrow and big snows with actual cold this weekend. Lets get some snow when it can stick around for a bit. Tomorrow is in and out and gone if you sleep past 9 on Thursday.