First off meet me in person at bear mountain creek tomorrow 11.00 am till 3.00pm.Second tomorrow high 45 rain moves in and tries to turn to snow by Wednesday night and yes this will happen. Sticking issues melting on contact ect ..leads to a one to three forecast and this is pushing it.Nobody is seeing four or four plus i dont even think I will be plowing snow off the streets.This was my call yesterday at 5.00 am and this is my call today for the 295 run of 60 miles .
Hey Marcus. I'm down in NE Maryland right no the Delaware border about 5 miles south of I-95. Big question do I put the plow on my 4 wheeler. Bought this bad boy back in December and it sits against the wall. Haven't shoveled in two years and dont want to shovel....which is why I bought the plow.
I'm almost too spring and don't want it on if I'm just going to take it off. I'm leaning on you buddy. Reb is saying an inch and I don't need a plow for that. It's gonna be warm thursday and friday so even two will melt quick. If we end up with 6 thats gonna need to be plowed....lol
Lol there's no dry slot here. Dry slot will stay way south. No way this thing goes further north to bring the dry slot here lol. I'm pretty confident on this system. Warm air being here I think is actually going to help us this time get some nice dynamics going, ala deleware/SNJ clipper. Snowfall rates will exceed the stick factor. Once the heavy precip starts temps will crash with 850's below 0c. Not to worried about us getting screwed this time.
I think alot of you are going to miss the dynamics of this one. It's putting 5-9" down in Texas where it was also just warm. Stick factor should be offset with snowfall rates. I'm still going with 3-6" around Philly.
The weekend storm is the kind of one where you need more of a negative tilt to the trough and most likely a near neutral to negative NAO. I just have more doubts today than I did 2 days ago. If this one falls through, just bring on spring
I am on board w/ 1-3" area wide although I do think there may be some small locales that lollipop above that. However in the city and south and east I think it's a sloppy coating to 2" type deal. I am still more bullish on weekend potential. Here is a quote from a very good met on americanwx in regards to the weekend.
"The H5 pattern is silly for this weekend. Chances of a major snowstorm are far higher than current guidance would indicate."
I think this is precisely why we see the GEFS with a much bigger signal than the OP as well as the EURO ensembles being more bullish.
How dare you use logic Rebel!! This is the ultimate thread the needle system. I looked at temps downstream from here(out to the west) and there isn't very much cold air. I'll go with 1-3" for the city with 2 to 4" north and west of the city. I'm still gunning for the weekend storm, but I can see where this is a progressive trough that keeps everything off the coast. It just seems hard to get a negative tilt trough in the progressive pattern this winter. I'm staying with it for now though(too early to give up with some of the models honking).
Thanks for the update Reb. I'm thinking the same as you. Our problem is going to be how warm it is leading up to this storm. Feels like spring since late yesterday and again this morning. Also it's going to be in the 40s or two days after the storm and will melt anyways.
If we can't get this storm this weekend or something by the end of next week I'm thinking that will be it for the winter. this weekend has promise but I'm not getting my hopes up. Kind of hoping for not much with this first one as it has no staying power and will melt righ away.
The Reb Man as spoken....1-3 it is!!! What is your early call for PDIII? I hope you say 1-3 and it comes to fruition. I am a snow lover, but I would really enjoy listening to all the weenies jumping off the bridge and blowing a gasket because we missed the big one and Rebel was correct with another call.