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00z GFS Ensembles! PD3 STORM BIG
OP run didnt look great. A lot of positives can be taken from this. I have never seen something like this for many different reasons that I will not get into right now, I will save that for later.
But take a look at this.
Hour 132
24 hour Precip hour 144
That means some of these ensembles ARE AMPED to the max.
Tomorrow could be the day that we will a HECS show up on these runs.
#WINTER2013OUTWITHABANG
Blog started by tim riggins , on 95 days ago
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Hello all
Just waiting in the 12z but somthing to note while the models play hide and seek with the PD storm.
1. The pattern is correct for this to happen. We have a low riding the northern stream thats will be very amped by PD.
2. We have an on going MJO thats juicing up these systems.
3. We have a pos PNA currently in the pacific that will probably hold through the immediate long term.
4. We have a NAO thats nuetral on its way to Neg or close to it by PD.
5. It's possible this far out the some models are suffering from feedback issues and presently little blocking in the North Atlantic ill shift storms out to sea. Models will probably play catchup with this storm once again due to the highly changeable nature of this progressive flow.
In my opinion its by this time climo usually has more chop in the northern stream anyway due to an annual building ridge in the south due to more heating hours durring the day. Sure we will have our days with cold weather outbreaks but its within our norms for this to happen durring this time.
Just waiting in the 12z but somthing to note while the models play hide and seek with the PD storm.
1. The pattern is correct for this to happen. We have a low riding the northern stream thats will be very amped by PD.
2. We have an on going MJO thats juicing up these systems.
3. We have a pos PNA currently in the pacific that will probably hold through the immediate long term.
4. We have a NAO thats nuetral on its way to Neg or close to it by PD.
5. It's possible this far out the some models are suffering from feedback issues and presently little blocking in the North Atlantic ill shift storms out to sea. Models will probably play catchup with this storm once again due to the highly changeable nature of this progressive flow.
In my opinion its by this time climo usually has more chop in the northern stream anyway due to an annual building ridge in the south due to more heating hours durring the day. Sure we will have our days with cold weather outbreaks but its within our norms for this to happen durring this time.
The ensembles do tell quite a different story. I am not signing off on this (PD) being OTS just yet. I'll wait until Friday.
Mark. At this point the storm is still there but the track has yet to be worked out. As Tim points out some ensembles paint a different story. As such it is still a possibility.
We need to see if the VD helps set up a block for us and sets up the PD weekend storm. OTS Is possible hut so is a direct hit, a glancing blow........
We need to see if the VD helps set up a block for us and sets up the PD weekend storm. OTS Is possible hut so is a direct hit, a glancing blow........
ahhh...thx...just needed some reassurance....and yes our news12 met said that the storm for nj was over on saturday evening...meanwhile I woke up to 9 inches in southern monmouth county.
The local CBS station here in NYC was calling for 3-6 inches of snow in NYC and Long Island just two days prior to the last storm, and we saw what happened in Long Island....between 12-30 inches. So,,,,,,yeah
How did it move OTS when its still over the pacific? Tv mets just follow recent model trend and that's why tim made this post to clarify that the ensembles show the storm for Sat.
Just heard on cbs news ny that the PD storm seems to be moving out to sea....Please tell me that I am not awake yet and didnt hear that correctly...
IIn regards to the PD3 storm, I think that we have to wait to see what happens with the VD storm first. Just my opinion, which may mean little....
Guys look at nogaps and fim also, not good enough models to base forecast on, but every single model tonight has trended west!!
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