Just waiting in the 12z but somthing to note while the models play hide and seek with the PD storm.
1. The pattern is correct for this to happen. We have a low riding the northern stream thats will be very amped by PD.
2. We have an on going MJO thats juicing up these systems.
3. We have a pos PNA currently in the pacific that will probably hold through the immediate long term.
4. We have a NAO thats nuetral on its way to Neg or close to it by PD.
5. It's possible this far out the some models are suffering from feedback issues and presently little blocking in the North Atlantic ill shift storms out to sea. Models will probably play catchup with this storm once again due to the highly changeable nature of this progressive flow.
In my opinion its by this time climo usually has more chop in the northern stream anyway due to an annual building ridge in the south due to more heating hours durring the day. Sure we will have our days with cold weather outbreaks but its within our norms for this to happen durring this time.
Mark. At this point the storm is still there but the track has yet to be worked out. As Tim points out some ensembles paint a different story. As such it is still a possibility. We need to see if the VD helps set up a block for us and sets up the PD weekend storm. OTS Is possible hut so is a direct hit, a glancing blow........
The local CBS station here in NYC was calling for 3-6 inches of snow in NYC and Long Island just two days prior to the last storm, and we saw what happened in Long Island....between 12-30 inches. So,,,,,,yeah