Good Evening All,

Reasons Against Snow:

 1.  progressive flow may keep this storm moving quickly and be too far off shore due to fast movements of systems up stream coming down the pike of the jet stream out west due to a collapsing PNA.

2.  Models are simply not on our side but again one must not forecast from models alone and for this once I am willing to put the model guidance aside and look at the current water vapor map and pattern developing before your eyes.  Someone once told me go "old school" and look at the sattelites and what is happening and try to hyposthesize the end results.: 1.  The deep trough setting up in the east  2.  Abundant moisture setting up in the Southeastern States namely Florida today and 3.  Cold shot is coming albeit brief but would get the ball rolling for a major winter storm.

Reason For Snow:

1.  The deep trough setting up in the east.

2.  Abundant moisture setting up in the Southeastern States namely Florida today. 

3.  Cold shot is coming albeit brief but would get the ball rolling for a major winter storm.

4.  The NAO may attempt to start going negative but is it going to happen for this storm or not???

The storm on Presidents' Weekend (Friday into Saturday)  has the POTENTIAL to be your blockbuster snowstorm!!  Now I am still  being BULLISH and we will see how the models handle the next trough coming in tonight

I think the 0z models tonight will really tell us if a storm is coming or not tomorrow night into Saturday afternoon.  It is amazing we have to wait this long for the models to come around but with multiple pieces of energy diving into one trough it is complicated in terms of timing and exact set up.

Do we see this set up or something close to it???  I put this set up out there back on Monday Night so let's see what happens but needless to say it will be interesting to see the 0z model suit come in tonight regardless if a big snowstorm is coming a learning event to say the least.

Looks Pretty Close to me area in Blue Box May Want to Watch Closely!!

I am fairly confident someone in that blue box is going to pick up over 10" of snow it is just a question of exactly where!

Thanks for Reading

WildWeather

Kevin Reilly

Liveweatherblogs.com