1. progressive flow may keep this storm moving quickly and be too far off shore due to fast movements of systems up stream coming down the pike of the jet stream out west due to a collapsing PNA.
2. Models are simply not on our side but again one must not forecast from models alone and for this once I am willing to put the model guidance aside and look at the current water vapor map and pattern developing before your eyes. Someone once told me go "old school" and look at the sattelites and what is happening and try to hyposthesize the end results.: 1. The deep trough setting up in the east 2. Abundant moisture setting up in the Southeastern States namely Florida today and 3. Cold shot is coming albeit brief but would get the ball rolling for a major winter storm.
Reason For Snow:
1. The deep trough setting up in the east.
2. Abundant moisture setting up in the Southeastern States namely Florida today.
3. Cold shot is coming albeit brief but would get the ball rolling for a major winter storm.
4. The NAO may attempt to start going negative but is it going to happen for this storm or not???
The storm on Presidents' Weekend (Friday into Saturday) has the POTENTIAL to be your blockbuster snowstorm!! Now I am still being BULLISH and we will see how the models handle the next trough coming in tonight
I think the 0z models tonight will really tell us if a storm is coming or not tomorrow night into Saturday afternoon. It is amazing we have to wait this long for the models to come around but with multiple pieces of energy diving into one trough it is complicated in terms of timing and exact set up.
Do we see this set up or something close to it??? I put this set up out there back on Monday Night so let's see what happens but needless to say it will be interesting to see the 0z model suit come in tonight regardless if a big snowstorm is coming a learning event to say the least.
Looks Pretty Close to me area in Blue Box May Want to Watch Closely!!
I am fairly confident someone in that blue box is going to pick up over 10" of snow it is just a question of exactly where!
Great briefing by the NWS. Interesting they mention it to emergency management the fact that its possible we get more. They're snow map they have now will most likely be the outcome in my opinion. This flow is just hurting us. Coming off the warm temps I think 1-4" region wide is the most reasonable unless the 0z's suites pick up on something bigger, unlikely. C-2" is my call for the deleware valley until these models prove me wrong.
Honestly did not look at what the HPC was saying. I simply just was looking over the Water Vapor Imagery and looking at what is embedded in the flow coming SSE and then SE and East from Northern Central Canada to Colorado to Texas over to the East Coast.
I am all the while keeping tabs on an ever increasingly active sub-tropical jet stream screaming NE out of Florida!
Thanks Rob and Marcus: You cannot ignore what is going on right in front of you the bottom line is that portions of our area especially in New Jersey are not out of the woods for a decent accumulating snowfall and it would not take too much to nudge just a bit further west.
While the flow is progressive I don't think we see a HUGE storm but the potential is there for 4-6" event possibly a 5-10"event in portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic up into New England.
Thanks for extending your snow map further into Maryland! I live in Southern Maryland having moved from South Jerssey 2 years ago - and none of the Mets seems to know this area exists......even Dean Davidson's blog's rarely cover this area. Again, Thanks!
Not a bad map Kevin! Looks good. 2-4" zone is my 3-6" zone 6" on the south side of that zone closest to best dynamics with the cold. I expect somewhere in nj to have a 6"+ total tomorrow. My bet is close to fort Dix.
@Freeze-mizer in terms of the prez storm. I totally agree with you on all your points.
I am in a wait and see mode until at least Thursday 12z runs.
The big storm idea cannot be taken off the table yet... finally NAO shows signs of negativity 16th to the end of the month keep your fingers crossed. What it may mean is the 16th to the 28th time period is good??