Delaware & Lehigh Valley Weather SNJ DE PA
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00Z Models Thread

8:30 - NAM (South Solution)

Went 40 mi south...

NYC - 1-2"

ABE - 2-3"

PHL - 3-5"

NJ 3-5", somewhere near the central coast gets 6+

DE - North 3-5", Dover 4-6"

MD - 2-3", NE MD can expect slightly higher without mixing

DC - 2-4" mixing issues

 

 

 

10:30 - GFS

 

NYC - 1-3" All snow

ABE - 2-4" All snow

PHL - 4-6" All snow

NJ - 3-5" for central - SNJ, gets lower as you approach NYC

DE - 4-7" North of Dover should be snow

MD - 4-6" All snow north of baltimore

DC - 2-4" still mixing issues

 

 

 

CMC (Fairly North)

*inital light rain possible

NYC - 2-3" All snow

ABE - 2-4" All snow

PHL - 3-6" All snow*

NJ - 4-5" for central - SNJ*

DE - 4-6" North of Dover should be snow*

MD - 3-5" All snow north of baltimore

DC - 1-3" still alot of mixing issues

 

UKMET (North Trend)

NYC - 2-5" All snow

ABE - 4-6" All snow

PHL - 4-7" All snow

NJ - 5-6" extreme SNJ possible mixing

DE - 5-7" More snow points east (above Dover)

MD - 2-5"

DC - 2-4" not as much mixing, less qpf

 

 Also to add: CRAS has nice little 5-8" for the whole area.

 

(JMA) - PHL,DE,NJ,NYC,RI see 4-7",MD 2-4"

Blog started by Swipe , on 100 days ago
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Swipe
this is just a tease compared to saturday...
100 days ago
 
Scootch
One must remember that these numbers are just model outputs. In real life, one must consider the warmth preceding the storm, perhaps any rain preceding the storm and the "fluff factor", which will be extremely low. Surface temps are marginal at best. Reality says, while qpf amounts might be 0.4 to 0.6 inches, that does not correlate with 4-6 inches of actual accumulation. Melting will occur early on and the wet snow will actually compact due to weight. Logic dictates a 1-3 to 2-4 inch snowfall maximum.
100 days ago
 
Drew Shervin
Snow will be melted by mid afternoon Thursday. Enjoy it while you can.
100 days ago
 
Swipe
Im sorry harrisburg isnt the target for this storm derrick, but we cant throw in the towel when we have the potential to top our season total so far in one storm LOL
100 days ago
 
Tyler
What are you talking about Derrick? Nothing happened to make anyone throw in there towels... Lol
100 days ago
 
DerrickG
Throw in the towel boys.....Its game over...Got a couple of more chances in 2 weeks.
100 days ago
 
Joe lasala
Marcus

Do u have a link to the CMC
100 days ago
 
Marcus wild
Cmc starts as maybe an hour of rain. Dynamics will drop the cold air quick. 4-6" is my call.... We've seen these dynamics before this year is all I'm saying.
100 days ago
 
Swipe
Tim, yes there may be some drizzle at start...
100 days ago
 
tim riggins
CMC is not all snow for philly. it shows some rain to start
100 days ago
 
78yanks
Alicia, the trough is one of the most defined we have seen and it will have a storm with this kind of set-up.

The nao is in place the cold air is in place the moisture is gonna be amped from the activity we have recently witnessed.

Every trough this winter has produced some sort of weather be it rain and or snow, now the mjo is in line and the model flashed a scenario earlier that would be likely with such a sharp trough set-up.

Give it time, most snow events are never figured out until 1-2 days out of the onset.

Yes, sometimes the big ones give longer heads up but, not all of them.

100 days ago
 
98yanks
I will be the first to read that Novel 78!
100 days ago
 
Jimmy
But the euro isn't and hasn't shown it. That's my point. Not just that the GFS lost it. I'd say the chance is less than 50 percent at this point.
100 days ago
 
Alicia Smith
So yanks, what do you think the odds are out of 10 that we could see a storm producing 4 inches or more from DC metro to NYC?
100 days ago
 
78yanks
This always happens with the gfs sniffing out storms. It will show again.

Earlier the gfs showed a incredible buckle in the trough and that spells a major snow event. GFs is in its losing it phase, just after it shows its hand.

The model was trying to show what is potentially going to happen on Sat/Sun. It will return just wait til Thursday....

100 days ago
 
Jimmy
Lol you don't have to agree.... The storm isn't looking good I can tell you that...
100 days ago
 
Swipe
This storm is key to PD3 and we need to wait until the models iron it out tomorrow imho.
100 days ago
 
Reggie Smith
the weekend storm will not happen, a storm will form but it will be ots, the trough is too progressive
100 days ago
 
tim riggins
Jimmy, I don't agree at all with what you said, this storm would actually help the pd3.
100 days ago
 
Jimmy
That's what isaid Tim.. I have a feeling this screws our weekend storm and is a reason the EURO never showed it because it never had this storm north always south... If the the EURO dont haven't tonight I'd give up on threat IMO...
100 days ago
 


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