One must remember that these numbers are just model outputs. In real life, one must consider the warmth preceding the storm, perhaps any rain preceding the storm and the "fluff factor", which will be extremely low. Surface temps are marginal at best. Reality says, while qpf amounts might be 0.4 to 0.6 inches, that does not correlate with 4-6 inches of actual accumulation. Melting will occur early on and the wet snow will actually compact due to weight. Logic dictates a 1-3 to 2-4 inch snowfall maximum.
Im sorry harrisburg isnt the target for this storm derrick, but we cant throw in the towel when we have the potential to top our season total so far in one storm LOL
Cmc starts as maybe an hour of rain. Dynamics will drop the cold air quick. 4-6" is my call.... We've seen these dynamics before this year is all I'm saying.
Alicia, the trough is one of the most defined we have seen and it will have a storm with this kind of set-up.
The nao is in place the cold air is in place the moisture is gonna be amped from the activity we have recently witnessed.
Every trough this winter has produced some sort of weather be it rain and or snow, now the mjo is in line and the model flashed a scenario earlier that would be likely with such a sharp trough set-up.
Give it time, most snow events are never figured out until 1-2 days out of the onset.
Yes, sometimes the big ones give longer heads up but, not all of them.
This always happens with the gfs sniffing out storms. It will show again.
Earlier the gfs showed a incredible buckle in the trough and that spells a major snow event. GFs is in its losing it phase, just after it shows its hand.
The model was trying to show what is potentially going to happen on Sat/Sun. It will return just wait til Thursday....
That's what isaid Tim.. I have a feeling this screws our weekend storm and is a reason the EURO never showed it because it never had this storm north always south... If the the EURO dont haven't tonight I'd give up on threat IMO...