Hi all,

A little humor in the title – Do we want the VD storm (love) or the PD storm (country)?  I wanted to wait for the EURO to come in before posting. I have to say things have gotten better around here – and it looks very promising.

A few weeks ago I posted a blog about the time period were in now. Below is the link. I’m referencing it to keep this one as short as possible. My “likes” haven’t changed since that post, in fact, they are stronger now, especially for the upcoming weekend potential.

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=18256&Itemid=179

Now - My concerns have changed. I think the teleconnections are in a better place and perhaps a bit more coordinated, than I thought they would be – so all the better.

Below are the combined signals from the 00Z runs last night.

And so I got the first week ok (blind squirrel) – though it was more of a north event – but no surprise given the pattern shift and where it was. I didn't post for the storm because (1) it was pretty much a locked north storm to me (even though I hoped for the earlier phase!!) and (2) our potential was a crap shoot – so I focused on improving my nowcasting skills particularly in the mesoscale analysis.

I’m obviously sticking with my second week, though may move it up a day (note the disclaimer in the original post of give or take a few days! :) )

VD – bottom line is I don’t want it come further north and don’t want it to strengthen until it heads to Greenland. Why? IMO - It becomes an important player for the weekend storm in the shape of the 50/50 Low. If it’s too strong too early, I believe it would throw off the trough that will take shape after it moves through. So if we get a few inches – great – it will help bring in the cold air, and the snow-cover will only help with….the Beast…. (dramatic music in background)

PD – It’s there, it’s not far away, so all models need to be taken seriously, except the ones that don’t support it. :) 12Zs from today:

• GFS just needs to trot a bit west. I’m expecting it to – though the 12Z wasn't too bad!!! Note: a weaker VD storm.  Snowfall total below.
  

• Euro – Had it on the 8^th or about 10 days out where it’s pretty good.  Lost it since then, but I think it will find it again starting tonight with the 0Z run as it enters the 5 day range.

• CMC – Game on. A bit too west right now, but it also has a stronger L for VD – so makes sense as far as the run goes – so not concerned on this run, more encouraged. Note: a stronger VD storm.

• NOGAPS – nice hit.

• UKIE – nice hit.

And so winter is far from over. In looking at the longer range and I think the last week in Feb will be another one to watch. Maybe a small shot in between PD and then, but again – it would be part of the setup.

And so - I vote for country!!!

Finally - Eye candy from the 6Z GFS run. Yeah- 6Z, fantasy land – but it is a thing of beauty, eh??

Let’s enjoy the ride – it’s been a while and it feels great.  As usual, I'm open to all comments and feedback, and I have no problem if I am wrong, if you disagree with me, or I made a mistake in reading the data, etc.. - Learning never ends.

Cheers!

FM