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12z NAM...rolling now....and NOW the GFS is Rolling
Drum roll
Blog started by scoopy , on 127 days ago
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Plus the teleconnections are a little better - so that's different also. Lastly i think the 50/50 Low will be a key in this thing slamming or missing.
Sgt - it's different type of storm. I think the last one was more of a hybrid Miller A/B where the re-development included the phase of the northern s/w. This one looks more like Miller B where the s/w comes from Alberta, dips in the trough and re-develops on the coast. So different challenges this time!!
I'm thinking 2-3 max for Thursday - and we don't want anymore because the next one is the one we want!!
Even TWC now has ABE 3-6" but after getting burned so bad I will wait until Wednesday for this call
GFS is meh! It's NAM track less amped so warmer and intensifies realtively too late for the city. I really think this is going to be a nuisance event (for city) if anything and we are going to see less amplified runs as we move forward. N/W burbs looking better temp wise.
Temps will be a factor more so at the surface. Really in mid 30s for for daytime highs this week - (based on TTN data)
I'm not sure i want this to be a big storm as I think it will have a role in the potential Sun-Monday sotrm. I'd take a miss or a mess if it helps set up the next one.
I'm not sure i want this to be a big storm as I think it will have a role in the potential Sun-Monday sotrm. I'd take a miss or a mess if it helps set up the next one.
The other thing that worries me is the temps! Even if it does snow I think accumulations may be tough to come by around the city unless the storm can ramp it up a little and get us in some heavy precip and evap cooling to bring the surfaces temps down. This is truly a "thread the needle" storm but that is par for the course in the coastal plain and we all know that!
With the NAO a little neg and the PNA heading to pos, I expect the EURO run to come a little more north today.
Bobby yes it did trend north of itself, but still less amplified and a "miss" for the city. I hope the GFS is right and it has been damn consistent with this storm that is for sure. Before 0Z last night I was at about 95% on a miss now I am about 65% so I think after the 12Z suite today we will have better agreement between the EURO and GFS one way or another. You are right 36 inches, the EURO has not been it's stellar self this season but it does still have the highest verification score of all the models.
Wenner beat me to it. I'm not SD, I will stick to my guns and stay with the flat Euro until it caves to the GFS(has that ever happened..usually the other way around). It now has my attention, but I am still gunning for the 16th to 23rd timeframe to produce for us!!
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