This one is going to come down to the final hours I think. Of the models anyone really cares about, you have a world of difference. GFS huggers are going with 1-3" of snow for ABE north and then an all out blizzard for New England. EURO huggers are going with the 9-12" the EURO put out for ABE north and the crippling 20"+ blizzard for New England. That is a HUGE spread for eastern Pa. The GFS is warmer for the area as it phases the northern energy later and the storm doesn't bomb till AFTER NYC. The 0z EURO last night phased quicker near Maryland and hence had a significant event from Lansdale north with a cold storm and 9"+ of snow, and the 12-18" snows were only about 40 miles east of Allentown. Accuweather is going to release their map and has 1-3" from Quakertown north into the Poconos and does not get 12"+ amounts until you hit Hartford and Boston with an all out blizzard up there. I really want to see the 12z GFS trend bigger and colder early AND the EURO hold with its early phased 0z solution before beginning to think biger things in eastern Pa. For now, my call would be 3-6" from Lansdale northward through most of eastern pa and Pocnos with 1-2" in the city. I want to leave room to obv. trned down or up so I think that is a solid starting point. Unfortunately, not much is going to be known for sure until later tomorrow. I just am not sure this our big one, while it could be moderate to signifcant for some of the area, we might have to wait until later next week to increase out chances.
I'll be away all day tomorrow so my last blog will come out tonight. After that I will not be able to comment or blog until tomorrow night. I might try to get a quicky out early tomorrow morning but no promises.
Thanks for your insight. It's nice to see you posting again. I haven't paid much attention to it since last winter's bore-a-thon, but with so many folks now on my back for personal weather forecasts, I have to start reading again :-) As for Friday, with the Gulf energy now taking shape, and the players aquarely on the map, I think there will be some model consensus on the 12Z runs today. My forecast formula for this one is (12ZEuro + 12ZGFS) / 2.
Wenner...good work. You remember the time period before the 09 Dec. Storm? It wasn't until 48 hours out when the storm looked like a hit, then each run after that up until the last 12 hours it turned its beautiful head over Philly.... I know the setup is different (esp. that this is a N/W storm vs. Philly S) but I am getting the same eerie feeling that the news will keep getting better and better! Hope your generator is ready to go!