This one is going to come down to the final hours I think. Of the models anyone really cares about, you have a world of difference. GFS huggers are going with 1-3" of snow for ABE north and then an all out blizzard for New England. EURO huggers are going with the 9-12" the EURO put out for ABE north and the crippling 20"+ blizzard for New England. That is a HUGE spread for eastern Pa. The GFS is warmer for the area as it phases the northern energy later and the storm doesn't bomb till AFTER NYC. The 0z EURO last night phased quicker near Maryland and hence had a significant event from Lansdale north with a cold storm and 9"+ of snow, and the 12-18" snows were only about 40 miles east of Allentown. Accuweather is going to release their map and has 1-3" from Quakertown north into the Poconos and does not get 12"+ amounts until you hit Hartford and Boston with an all out blizzard up there. I really want to see the 12z GFS trend bigger and colder early AND the EURO hold with its early phased 0z solution before beginning to think biger things in eastern Pa. For now, my call would be 3-6" from Lansdale northward through most of eastern pa and Pocnos with 1-2" in the city. I want to leave room to obv. trned down or up so I think that is a solid starting point. Unfortunately, not much is going to be known for sure until later tomorrow. I just am not sure this our big one, while it could be moderate to signifcant for some of the area, we might have to wait until later next week to increase out chances.
I'll be away all day tomorrow so my last blog will come out tonight. After that I will not be able to comment or blog until tomorrow night. I might try to get a quicky out early tomorrow morning but no promises.
yeah but i was posting it for giggles moreso come tomorrow I will consider the NAM right now I just want to see the storm. My personal thinking right now is moderate accums in POCS LV and a mix in the city. I think the temp profiles are getting colder, but this really is a NE storm all the way imo. Hopefully we can get the EURO to continue it's depiction and trend. We will see.
NAM puts most of the area in the screw zone once the coastal bombs out. no western precip shield. It is an improvement at H5 but everything comes together a little too late for our area which is my biggest fear and given this set-up is very possible. These setups typically favor places north and east of our area. However this is the NAM outside it's range so I wouldn't lend it much credence. I am very skeptical right now for PHL and I would feel a lot better if I lived in NYC that is for sure. On to the GFS!
Thanks for your insight. It's nice to see you posting again. I haven't paid much attention to it since last winter's bore-a-thon, but with so many folks now on my back for personal weather forecasts, I have to start reading again :-) As for Friday, with the Gulf energy now taking shape, and the players aquarely on the map, I think there will be some model consensus on the 12Z runs today. My forecast formula for this one is (12ZEuro + 12ZGFS) / 2.