GFS

The GFS is not fully in agreement with the European model from previous runs, but it made big steps tonight.  The GFS shows the northern stream s/w slowing down allowing the low to develop and advance northward.  The previous runs sped the northern stream s/w through the Northeast and it sheared apart the southern energy.  The GFS shows a nice CAD signature and the temp profiles will be warmer than these clippers, so we might have to be concern with ice with this one. 

The phasing does not happen on this run and the low goes east with little precip working its way in.  But this is a big improvement from the earlier runs of the GFS:

EUROPEAN

The two s/ws stay unphased.  The southern stream s/w gets out ahead of this and forms our low pressure system like the GFS has now caught on to.  These systems phase just after this frame to give New England a big snow storm.  A foot or more of snow in Boston!

It is too warm for snow in the Philly metro on the first frame.  It is looking like a snow changing to rain quickly and then back to snow with 1-2".  NYC NW burbs could be close to 6" on this run. The sfc looks warm on the model for the city itself.