I'm sure everyone is waiting for the 0z runs to bring in the miracle. Myself included.
But reality, facts, the pattern, blah..blah..blah... says "don't expect it for Sunday or next week".
So is there any hope? Have you not seen Rocky? Trading Places? 12 Monkeys? (a couple of Philly films...) Rudy? Happy Gilmore? The Blues Brothers? Animal House? Natl Lampoon Vacation (all of them)? Flash Gordon? (really??) Rambo? Something for Joey? The Searchers? Free Willy! (WTF??) Secretariat? (what a friggin horse!!!)
Hey - was it over when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor? When the going gets tough....
...the tough get going. (which film??)
OK - seriously. I wrote a blog last week that highlighted what I thought were good signs and concerns, as well as potential time to look for snow events. This coming week being one. It has potential - but the dang pattern is slowly reducing my optimism.
But - the good signs are still there, and unfortunately the concerns continue. BUT-BUT - it ain't over until the "slightly overweight lady" sings.
Good things to look at w/ the models:
Cold is available - it WAS NOT last year.
QPF is available - it WAS NOT last year. (note: for quite a few runs the total qpf for my area over the 16 day period has been 1.5" or better - I did not see that last year)
NAO - it's a lost signal. Nothing worse than "neutral". I've seen many comments about it. I think the NAO needs to be going negative or, at negative and going positive, or just a good negative value to support a decent chance of a storm - anything else is a crap shoot.
Pattern - Unbelievably lousy the last two years for winter. Fast, Flat and Frustrating. FFF. I don't think it will change, but I do think it will "relax" to allow some opportunities.
Pause - watching the flyboys - HOW MANY TIMES DO THEY EXPECT BRYZ TO STOP BREAKWAYS???????? C'mon!!! Both teams are desperate, but playing conservatively! Is this hockey or chess????
And so the problem with this weekend has multiple issues: the pattern based on the NAO and the "why are you not strongly + PNA" - translates to fast, wants to trend to flat/progressive, multiple S/Ws that can't get together, a STJ that wants to play but only gets invited for the GLCs. blah, blah, blah.
BUT - Models - dear lord - Information Technology....PULL THE PLUG ON THOSE DANG MODELS AND PUT US OUT OF OUR MISERY!!!
oh well - No surprise on the models. I said it before - they will have a tough time getting anything right due to the pace and path of S/Ws, back and forth of cold, lack of blocking, blah, blah, blah.
For the 0Z runs - don't give up hope. It's not about getting HECS. It's about the pattern, S/Ws and qpf to get enough players coordinated to get a decent snow like our southern friends witnessed this morning.
No one - and I mean no one, wants a HECS, MECS, WTF-ECS than I do. But don't get caught up in what you want versus what the model output projects. But also - don't get too depressed - how did those models do with the snow this morning for DE and south NJ??
But do remember, the models have biases, inefficiencies, lack of data, and if you ever read my blogs from years ago - the stinking OOMPAS (data entry analysts) from the mid-west are probably still in the feud with the east coast OOMPAS. :)
Get ready for NOWCASTING. Look at WV to get a sense of possibilities....
yeah scoopy - that has been showing up on the last few runs. Dates change, solution changes - but it's in the long range part - so all I've been watching is if it keeps showing up as potential. Mid-late Feb baby. Swings and threading the needle.
00znam reminds me of a song i used to love back in the day called another one bites the dust. This winter sucks Virginia and washington dc get more snow than we. Now the NAO stays pos if therzs no block it dont matter what happens its gonna keep passin us bye. Ooooothats anothers song pharside passing me by .
You know when we get dumped on it will happen when we stop looking for it. Mother nature likes to surprise people but if you see her comming she aint gonna show up because thats how pre madonas are they live with chip on their shoulders and show up when they feelike it like the divas they are. In the spring on baseballs opening day
Snow likely before 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. East wind 6 to 9 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A chance of rain and snow showers before 7pm, then a chance of snow showers between 7pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. West wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible