Right now the latest data is showing the threat decreasing for severe winds. The lack of instability and steep low level lapse rates will prevent the strongest winds above us in the lower levels from mixing down. With a line of showers and isolated storms moving through Wednesday night it is possible for wind gusts in the 40-45mph range.
The threat has decreased because of this:
The low level lapse rate is not as steep as previously forecasted by the models. As a result we do not get any instability and this prevents winds from mixing down in the heavier rain bands. However, with the strong linear forcing we cannot rule out a few isolated cases of strong wind gusts with winds exceeding 60Kts just above the sfc. However, wind gusts should stay well below severe criteria in our region.
To the South it is more favorable for a more widespread wind event:
A nice sounding for low topped convection capable of momentum transport from the low levels to the sfc. This would support a more widespread strong to potentially severe wind gusts criteria.
However, keep an eye on this one as the winds in the lower levels are strong. If our temperature is warmer at the sfc than expected the wind threat will increase:
Rob and Mike...amazing to me that you guys have been talking about the possibility of snow later this week and next week for some time now and the so called "experts" at the various other outlets just started mentioning it over the past hour. Interesting!