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00z Nam is coming in now!
post observations as they happen below.
Blog started by Jaryd More , on 147 days ago
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JPM again, hi everyone, the models continue the trend toward more qpf and with 20 to 30 to one ratios this is looking good for snow lovers. I predicted the models to move toward a snowier solution back on the page where things looked bad for snow (when the GFS and ECMWF went south and dry), this is a normal thing for models to do day's out. Also, the low being moved more and more northwest and closer to the coast indicates that, even now the guidance is under performing as far as snow totals in southeast PA and the mid-Atlantic. This snowier trend was easy to see and should continue, for days I have been saying that this would happen, if I am wrong then so be it, that doesn't happen much though.
Nkay No it is struggling to get us up above 4 inches in PHL. Of course if your house is 20 miles out to sea with the fish you'll get more.
Could this storm still develope into the major blockbuster noreaster that we r in desperate need of?
Tim its trending right now I do not see it staying where it is at the current moment, I see philly picking up a 3-6 inches out of this storm maybe 4-8 the way things are going now. 4-8 is a lot less likely though but who knows just a few more miles northward
Actually no Bobby, what I meant the NAM just came into agreement with the GFS. not saying the GFS will go north
Like most of the guys over an americanwx are saying, the precip isn't going to be falling heavy, so some of that total QPF will be in the form of virga.
Im seeing more tim. Models will trend more and more. Look you said the NAM has come in line with the GFS which has been trending northward so the GFS should be north according to your expertness. Yesterday models were showing nothing maybe a coating at max now we are back to 2-4 inch range probably going to trend up more as the time comes closer. So please stop being negative if you're right then congratulations
Mark A, I have nothing against what you said, I have seen crazier things than this, but I see a 2-3inch storm for philly which isn't bad. gives the plows enough to make money
Let's all talk positive and positive things will happen at least that what I was taught we still have tommorrow too to get more qpf so no negativity just positive on the snow
https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/537073_524907260887176_1909141608_n.jpg
look at this, based off the NAM if this storm trended another 50-100 miles north PHL south would be jackpot!
look at this, based off the NAM if this storm trended another 50-100 miles north PHL south would be jackpot!
Models can do whatever they want to, tim. They could flip to a major snowstorm if they want(not likely) but it has happened before where the models did a complete shift 24 hrs before the blizzard.
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