As we "patiently" await the 0z runs, I'd thought a quick blog on what the challenge is (at least one challenge), and what to look for tonight would be a way to bide the time - along with a nice evening drink.
There are many things not in our favor with the approaching systems. Pattern is progressive - and fast, lack of phasing when we need it, but we do have really bloody, stinking cold air around - so that's good if you are a masochist that likes cold dry air.
Anyway, the follwing two pics show the impact of the current pattern and why we hope enough qpf can get attached to these systems to bring some fluffy white stuff that brings out the kid in all of us, and the $$$ for all the plowers!!
The basic challenge with this event is the polar and sub-tropical jet streams don't connect soon enough, but each have a decent amount of moisture to play with, so the term "over-running" has been used a bit. I'm not sure this is typical or prototype "over-running", but I don't think it's a bad metaphor for this lousy, two-bit, disappointing, stinking........sorry, i can't help myself, sometimes i want to rant like the dad does in Christmas Story!!
Both PICS based on the stellar 18Z GFS. Pic#1 shows roughly Friday 7pm where the streams are and where the Ls are located. I mean - how can you have "johnny super storm" when you can't get together???
Pic #2 shows when they do lock eyes, realize this is the real deal and decide to give the dang fish another white Christmas!!! Aaaarrrggggg!!!!
Anyway - maybe not perfect graphics - but hopefully enough to get the point across. Look for any change in this tonight - but given the data - just hope that more qpf can get attached to the L..osers!
Ratios will be very good so we don't need a lot to have a nice event at least Trenton and south.
P.S. - taking bets (for entertainment purposes only!) on when the fly boys win a game. Over/under set at 5.