As you can see - thanks to Nemuel my tech issue has been resolved with the edit toolbar - finally!
And so – first things first – given the seemingly imminent failure of yet another chance for snow – let’s start with some humor.
Referring back to the legendary Johnny Carson and his Carnac the Magnificent role.
What are these pictures?
Answer is at the end. OK. Onto the Friday event.
Pattern stinks. The end. J/K. Pattern does stink, but maybe, just maybe, things are changing. Some teleconnections are looking better although the NAO seems to be pulling a Nnamdi and just not showing up.
Right now we basically face the dreaded progressive pattern in which systems fly across the country and out to sea, and when cold air does comes down, it results in suppression or shearing. Boo-hoo-hoo.
The chart below shows the basic difference between what we want and what we have at the 500mb level. It’s a general view, so don’t reply with comments of moving the lines! If you do I will track you down, tie you to a chair and make you listen to Barry Manilow singing non-stop Christmas tunes!
And it’s not that simple even with the desired pattern. Lots of things still need to come together and be in the right spot for a good old snowstorm. It’s been years since we’ve seen one……ok, only a couple of years, but it seems like forever!!!
While this week still has to play out – the progressive pattern seems to be leading the solution. We’ll see. No one would be happier than me if I’m wrong.
Still a few days to go and as I said a day or so ago – this one will be a classic nowcast event. In that case – WV will be a key one to watch. Right now it’s ridiculous! I’m sure it’s been like this before, but I've never seen it like this. Don't read anything into it – just an interesting current WV that’s all.
Regardless - i don't see this as a "storm" but a fast "drive-by" with a hopeful amount of qpf.
So watch the models, but don’t go nuts. Things aren’t stacking up right now. Emphasis on “right now”. Tonight and tomorrow runs are critical. Systems and energy are finally coming on land.
No totals yet from me - tomorrow night for that.
Oh yeah. The Carnac question: Name a chip and a dip. HA!
yea - i said yesterday this "looked" more like a clipper - but also think it can have other dynamics (better moisture source) that may give us a chance. Stinking clippers rarely pan out - they're usually much drier to start with and then run into the mighty appalachians which carves them up!
Gents - winter isn't over! The cold air has finally shown up. Step 1. Signals are looking better - step 2. I think Feb will provide many opps for storms. Friday isn't over yet - let it play out. That WV out west is feeding the L that will be the one that comes across. That's a nice warm feed that isn't normal IMO. Expect changes tomorrow with WV - models...eh...well you can't discount them, but they are FAR from perfect.
Heck - it would be nice to get 2-3 out of this one.
JohnG - it's not so much about the low as much as how much moisture it picks up and pushes along the way IMO.
YO Marcus.....I was afraid the models were going to go my way of thinking.....and everyone here knows how much I love to predict a good snowstorm......this just never looked right to me. Starting to TREND to my way of thinking unfortunately....and I hate it!!!
JohnG you made a random guess lol, nothing supported it. Now you have support; great, you basically took an egg dropped it from the WTC and got lucky it didnt crack. Don't act as though you knew it or forecasted it meteorologically.
This isn't over until at least 12z tomorrow, but it doesn't look good.