First some Eye Candy: The DGEX Model ( I don't think this will happen but you never know)
The Orange area down there in Southeastern Pa Chester, Delware, Phiadelphia, Montgomery, and Bucks is 10"+
I will be updating this throughout the day again as I am off from school but still have to get to the Gym since it is my day to go.
12z GFS Just In:
Shows a solid 6" for the 5 county area.>>>> 12z GFS specifically shows 4-8" five county area Wilmington Delware to the Lehigh Valley... 2-4" every where else along the I-295 Corridor ... South Jersey and Central and Southern Delware 1-3" due to mixing issues and rain with a wind coming in off the Atlantic.
Now for our friends in Southern Delaware County, Chester County and near the Delaware River the Rain / Snow Line is very close by... Looks like for our friends along the I-295 corridor opposite side of Commodore Barry Bridge... a swath of 2-4" before a changeover takes place this would also perhaps also be the case in Wilmington.
Points north and west of the Delaware River this is a snowstorm with few mixing problems if any at all noted.
We are in a much better place from a model stand point than we were yesterday.
While the NAO wants to be neutral or positive the Polar Vortex does want to keep this storm moving more towards the east then turn north say towards Cleveland and Syracuse which would be a snow lovers disaster.
Watch the trends today but the Euro and GFS do look similar again and basically the I-295 Corridor on North and West and the Mason Dixon Line PA Maryland line snow looks likely again.
At this time I would say a 3-6" event with the possibility of a 4-8" event is on tap for Friday afternoon and Night January 25th.
At the current timing the heaviest part of the storm with 1" snowfall rates per hour would most likely be between 4-8PM... once again it is fast mover so huge snowfall totals of say 12+ are not expected at this time unless the NAO were to go negative of course which does not appear likely.
The Canadian Model 12z:
After this the rain snow line passes the Mason Dixon Line but I still think the Candaian is too far north with that line.
You can post your thoughts below...
P.S. These pop-up ads really need to go and a few of them are inappropriate for younger ears it needs to be cleaned up like fast.
There is continuity run after run on the models for days, Watch for them to to possibly go to a solution that is terrible and then go back to a great solution, they tend to do that. However it is looking good for an HSE for southeast pa. 10 degrees the morning the event and ~10 to 15 Fin the 850 and other lower upper levels clearly means very high ratios so the next day or two will tell I will issue a forecast tomorrow.
Gonna have to agree with you Kevin about the videos and pop ups. This is a great site, but i visit it so infrequently now due to all the non-weather related BS that pops up, videos that start at every new window, and, is it just me, or is this site just the slowest website on earth to navigate?
18z GFS is an off run I have not seen it but it falls in line with the other models so I am not concerned at this time.. bring on the 0z GFS and by the way a heavier band of snow showers will rotate through here in the next 35minutes or so in Delco... get reading for a brief burst.
I dunno if it's a gfs vs euro battle. The models aren't that far off it's not really any model vs any model in my opinion. The solutions aren't that far off. The fact is most of not all models show a significant snowfall for Philly Friday, the first in years.
18Z is warmer than the Euro but definitely wetter. Coastal Jersey won't like this run. 850 line gets right into Philly near the end of the storm but most qpf falls out ahead of it when its cold. I am about to leave from work so I can't look at the soundings but the snowmap shows maybe 8-10 inches in SEPA. Looks like Delco/Chesco get the most but everyone does good. Higher qpf always falls in the battle zones.
Given the current teleconnections the path, qpf and placement of cold air will be tough to lock down. Between now and Wed runs I expect same of what I've seen from models regarding agreement/disagreement. My guess is this will be a classic nowcasting event in the end.
There's actually more of a path of uncertainty since its really an East/West type system. It can track from well south of our area which keeps everyone cold with high ratio snows but less qpf to basically on top of us which could bring in more qpf but will change everyone from PHL south to ice or rain. The outcome could be anywhere in that path.
Regarding the DGEX model, it's showing around 10" for bucks county. Given that, what are the actual chances that we even see snow? I'm not asking for an amount, not gonna whine like I've seen some do over lack of snow (unforuantely, I'm starting to get used to it). Just a curious snow lover who is tired of watching NYC/Boston area get snow while we get flurries/mix/sleet/nothing.
I'm seeing mentions of different tracks, are they different in where the storm is going, or what it's going to produce?