Good Afternoon All,

 I NEED TO PUT THIS IN CAPITAL LETTERS I AM NOT WRITING THIS STORM OFF YET... I STILL THINK WINTERY PRECIPITATION IS A GOOD BET ON FRIDAY JUST A QUESTION HOW MUCH FOR EACH PRECIPITATION TYPE.

I HAVE SEEN MODELS DO CRAZY THINGS LIKE MAKING COASTALS INTO GLORIFIED MILLER B'S ITS JUST THAT THE NAO IS NOT IN OUR FAVOR WHICH HAS ME ALMOST CERTAIN THAT THE I-95 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST SEES A CHANGE OVER TO SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND PROBABLY IN TIME RAIN.. HOW FAST THAT HAPPENS TELLS THE STORY.

Euro I think really is more realistic still shows some snow but we shall see.

12z NAM just in

Well, the Monday Night Clipper throwing moisture back is still there I think right now an inch or two would be the best call regin-wide with perhaps a bit more further north and east of Philadelphia towards the Beaches north of ACY due to the proximity of the Atlantic and the availability of a bit more moisture.

12z GFS Just In Friday Event:  (SORRY) This is Awful>>> I am a firm believer in telling it how it is but this is the result below for now.

By the way the 12GFS was a disaster for snow lovers.

Friday Storm goes Ohio Valley to just southwest of Pittsburgh to about Reading and south of Allentown then to NYC and out.... this would bring rain all places Philly south and east for sure.

One run so let's see what happens but it is evident that the neutral to +NAO is being picked up by the GFS and not locking the cold air in like it was doing yesterday...

Red Flags are flying for Snow lover Disappointment.

The Friday January 25th Snow Storm Threat:

This is my concern for snow lovers the pattern settting up is too progressive not allowing these systems to slow down off a neutral to +NAO.  What this causes is the warm air at the upper levels to kind of have its way especially if the colder air is a shallow layer left behind from a cold blast AKA perhaps what we will be seeing Tuesday through Thursday this week.

As the pattern is too progressive the cold air cannot hold on as the storm plows in warming aloft first then eventually at the surface where you are on this continuum as a weak storm plows in from the wsw will determine snow, sleet, and the ever dangerous Freezing Rain. 

At this time we really are sitting on the fence with the other side of the fence along the I-95 corridor and just north and west of Freezing rain and sleet is where I stand right now.  As you migrate further south and east while there will likely be wintry precipitation to start chances are the warmer Atlantic Waters get you and a changeover is inevitable to all rain.  How quickly the changeover takes place in anyone area if at all is a question that needs to be ironed out.

I can say with 95% accuracy a storm is coming so let's see what happens.  However at this time as has been my concern all along is the teleconnector below.

That NAO is neutal an some members are even slightly positive it screams slop fest of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

Yea once again we may have precipitation type issues with the Friday system... I keep on pointing at it most shrug it off but the NAO is only neutral to slightly positive this is going wreck havoc with precip issues from Philly south and east with a warmer Atlantic and a storm that just wants to try to plow northeastward.

We have some time to iron out the precip issues but for those especially along the I-95 corridor this morning over into Delaware and South Jersey it is time to start getting nervous if you are a snow lover....

The key to all of this comes Tuesday onward when we get to see how deep this cold shot is or is it a bit muted and shallower.

A WORD OF CAUTION HERE I AM CONCERNED THAT IF THIS COLD IS THE REAL DEAL AND I THINK IT IS FREEZING RAIN IS GOING TO BECOME A BIG PROBLEM ESPECIALLY WILMINGTON PHILADELPHIA POINTS NORTH AND WEST.

LOVE IT Lilia my daugther is reading this as I type and she told me; "You promised we would play in the snow!"  "I am working on it dear still?"

Thanks for Reading

WildWeather

Kevin Reilly

Liveweatherblogs.com