I've been talking about this for a few days and now we're within 48 hours of this possible event. It's pretty cold so it snow or nothing at this point and yeah it's a powder snow.
A few things will have to happen to get the snow in PA NJ DE MD NY but it's possible if we can get one of the following things to happen:
1. Tap a little Atlantic moisture
2. Impressive Jet Streak over the region
2. Get the storm to feed off the Atlantic and Gulf Stream on the way out
3. This is a long shot...slow down the forward motion and tap the gulf.
NAM .18" Philly x 15:1 snow ratio (fluff factor) = 2.7"
GFS .04" Philly x 15:1 snow ratio = .6"
NAM .15" Allentown x 15:1 snow ratio = 2.2"
GFS .08" Allentown x 15:1 snow ratio= 1.2"
NAM .18" Wilmington x 14:1 snow ratio= 2.7"
GFS .02" Wilmington x 14:1 snow ratio= .3"
NAM .20" Trenton x 15:1 snow ratio (fluff factor) = 3.0"
GFS .05" Trentonx 15:1 snow ratio = .7"
NAM .11" Millville x 14:1 snow ratio = 1.5"
GFS .01" Millville x 14:1 snow ratio= .2"
NAM .11" Atlantic City x 13:1 snow ratio= 1.4"
GFS ." Atlantic City x 13:1 snow ratio= .2"
So we have about a 1/2 of snow now on the GFS and 2-3" on the NAM as we enter within 48 hours of the event depending on most locations.
MY THINKING AT THIS POINT...
We are within 48 hours of possible snow so we can actually start watching the radar from the Midwest in the morning. I'll be watching to see how the clipper (low) rolls through the Midwest. It will have a jet streak with it so we'll see if this can jump start the clipper for a few inches by the time it gets east of Pittsburgh Monday evening.
This was showing up a few days and now trending back to that I idea I had about 3 days ago so the dynamics are there for this to happen. Oh on a side note Friday has some big potential...we'll post that in another blog.
Rob, I agree with turning to the radar this close to an event. You commented about this in an earlier post. I'm still new to this site and have seen models project stuff 10 days out and people get upset. The fact is, as many have pointed out, weather systems do what they do, they don't care about models. Early awareness from the models is great but we get 48 hours out and when the nowcasting starts radars becomes much more important. The late week storm looks great on paper right now!
If it does it better be mostly Monday night. Cause Tuesday is the one day I don't want it to snow. As I have a funeral to go to, bad enough it's only going to get to 20 degrees with single digits wind chill.
Kevin like I was saying, looks god that we have the cold Air in place, this thing could seriously BOMB out. Getting closer to this storm and things are looking better, a lot can change, but the ratios look good. 6-10 inches.