Latest trends and observations are showing some interesting things. The radar has shown a lot of virga extending north and the radar does look really well at this hour:
Latest mesoanalysis data from the SPC and current WV imagery are showing more interaction with the northern stream than anticipated with a stronger low to the south. The low to the south being stronger will allow for more northward movement of the precip shield, but it is important to stress that the northern fringe of this shield could get sheared apart pretty rapidly so this is why nowcasting is important.
Two maps stand out to me at this hour...one being the moisture transport. Previous hours and yesterday showed the moisture transport being suppressed and unimpresive. Now we see it streaming right towards the area.
The second map is the sfc pressure with sfc pressure falls:
The low is stronger than modeled and developing quicker and further inland. Notice the pressure falls take it on a slightly more northward heading. This is important because an impressive band of snow will fall as it departs right offshore. The more we push northward now the better the chance S NJ gets hit.
My snow map from yesterday remains the same for the most part with perhaps taken DC area down to 1-3" range.
That's an inverted trough Tim I believe. It's the storm off shore interacting with the northern stream FINALLY. I saw this last year when I was at fort Dix and we got 2 1/2 inches REAL QUICK. RAP really makes it interesting with the inverted trough. Brings a period of snow to Philly as well.
These troughs can lay down some decent snow in a very short period of time.
The Real Radar: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=1&ID=LWX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=39.29592133&lon=-76.62371826&label=Baltimore, MD&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0
I cant even stand to read that comment marcus lol, it hurts thinking of what this could have been. With how many misses there have been and the long range models looking worse and worse each run going back to the same old pattern, this winter looks even worse than last year and I didn't think for one second it would since it was SO hyped up. This sucks, and I am passionate about snow, it is not my life, just something I love, like how some of you guys love the Flyers Phillies etc. Even though I like them too hehe
Just imagine with how strong it is with the snow down south, if this came up the coast and BOMBED out, we would be in store for HUGE SNOW TOTALS. This year just isn't going to give us more than 1-3 inches.