It is over, the storm is going to go south of us and the precip that does get near the philly will be dried up and fall as rain if anything. hate to break it to ya, I do hope it snows, but you guys seem to be wishcasting here.
18NAM seems like it wants to nudge it a lil bit north and west now. The PV is the key here somthing a lil fishy about it. The thickness of the PV might be overdone by most models. This may be why radar returns are a lil further north tha. Modeled. Hmm waitingbon next Gfs shortly
Aaahh dont you belieeeeeve it. Its virga I would believe it more if we had more of a negative trough that will support atlantic moisture into the system. If the returns start to fill in around hateras and stream in at a more negative trajectory then i can believe it. Its overunning verga but watch the the phase at hatteras if its stronger that will pull the system more closer to the coast which will steepen the trough wich will allow for the snow to travel northward.
Looking at the national radar the Mason Dixon Line looks like an invisible wall past which the precipitation just will not travel north. I do see that the circulation seems to be building up the moisture flow from the GOM and appears to my very much untrained eye to be larger that modeled. It is amazing that such a large mass of moisture traveling quickly cannot travel 50 miles north to make us all happy.
Most of that is virga Tim sadly. Euro and JMA both show Philly getting a decent snowfall tonight. JMA shows 3-5" and euro has 1-3". Short range models have 0" though. So it's pretty much a hit or miss situation.
Euro and JMA show hope for Philly south and east, but I don't buy in. Most likely nothing more the a few flurries.