I know I know some of you woke up pretty upset and grumpy because yet another storm may miss your area. Trust me as a meteorologist that has to make these forecasts it's just as frustrating. The past two winters have been tough...pretty tough on the weather models and certain parts of the country including Boston, NYC, Philadelphia and Chicago.
To a degree the models have gone backwards a bit when it comes to forecasting and well just maybe too much data is getting put into these models vs. just looking at a pure pattern.
The radar shows a contimued flow of moisture from the southwest as the precip rides around the ridge (high pressure off the coast. The key to this evening is to see how the storm tracks northeast and whether the colder air will push things south.
So the track of the storm and precip field are the keys to getting snow into your hometown...right now as expected lower SNJ and Delaware along with DC Metro have the best chance of shoveling snow tonight.
So we do have another big winter storm it's just not here in the Delaware and Lehigh Valley. We'll keep an eye on this for you because the last storm did drift north at the last minute and did over juice the region.
EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS OF 8:30 AM FROM THE NWS
THE WILDCARD AREA ARE IN SOUTH JERSEY AND DELAWARE AS COLDER AIR COMES SOUTH AND WE COULD SEE THE BLUE AREA 1"+ PRESS AS FAR NORTH AS I-95 IN DE...I-295 in NJ UP TO THE HADDONFIELD EXIT LATER TONIGHT.
Tim, Yes they have. More often they miss amounts but storm tracking errors are not that uncommon. The 1996 blizzard (not technically) they had 2-4 inches as the call the day before for me. I can tell you that that was 38’ not 4’ that I shoveled that Sunday/Monday. The dynamics and sheer number of factors that influence the weather are still to astronomical to be handled by current computing capabilities. That along with the fact that from a time standpoint we have only recently begun to be able to collect and compile more complete and more accurate data means we only are dealing with small sample size for comparisons when compared to the number of influencing factors. You hear about initialization errors all the time and that is only trying to predict a starting point a few hours away. That is why the Pro Mets put more weight on the radar and water vapor as a storm gets closer.
Gah, looking at the radar I can almost reach out and touch the moisture...it looks so close to Reading. I'm going to try to ignore it, I was just tracking this one out of bordem because I have been hiding from flu germs, wasn't expecting to see anything get close!
Bob and marcus, I do agree its going to take alot for the system to push that dry air out and stop the virga however with the low winding up the way it is there is like you said a chance that it can push it away and give away to a few solid hours of snowfall. Places down farther south into balt/wash have a higher probabiliy of it happening but you never now with the way things have been going lately. I would say the wildcart timeframe for all of this to happen wouldnt be until after 7pm tonight. But we will see! Just throwing it out there that there is that chance before this is all said and done!
I don't think that 1-2" is out of the realm of possibilities Tyler... But it's going to take alot of heat from this system to push back that cold dry air.
Euro - 1-3" for Philly. Silly JMA - 2-5" for Philly.
Can the 18z nam come in north to match the euro and JMA? Maybe. Little late to be checking models I know, this is 100% now casting situation.
I expect nothing but virga here though as bob is saying. The west, north west wind will most likely dry up any precip up here as it falls. Ya never know tho there COULD be a surprise and the euro and JMA show it happening, but it's the JMA, and the euro.
bob your right alot of it is virga and wont make it to the ground until about 6-7PM but then it should be coming down and snowing in places as far north as philly right through the balt-wash metro. I dont think places down in VA are going to get nearly as much as they are suppose to because of the shift and places where it has shifted north to like bal/wash/philly may acually pick up 1-2 inches from the timeframe 7-11pm tonight when the air is saturated enough to acually snow.