The 00z's so far are not showing what we want here in S NJ/PHL area! The NAM has shifted north and west from the 18z run but errors are still evident on this run. The model is really not impressed with the current radar and does not match up. I will try to explain the significance of this below:
The strong deformation zone setting up is going to lead to the sharp cut off. The northern stream creates confluence aloft allowing for sinking moiton and the precip drying out as it heads north. We need to shift this "confluence" further north by throwing more moisture and heat at it. The latest WV imagery is impressive and shows a very promising signal for a storm to come further north in terms of precip shield. It is going to update automatically but many of you are viewing this now (9:50PM Weds) and you can see the ascent bending back north and west (OH and IN) and showing no impact of a sheared system. Granted we still have ways to go but I was not expecting to see this on WV imagery. (Cannot get motion to work)
The SREF has shifted south and east but most still give S NJ down the shore a nice accumulating snowfall.
The GFS does a better job at initialization and backs off slightly from previous runs. But still a nice hit for NJ and southern DE.
I agree with many of you and much of what is being said. Long range forecasting is a JOKE!!! I commented back in Mid-December about always chasing the cold and so-called pattern change. Face it long term forecasters are selling snake oil. Two horrible winters in a row is bad enough, but when you have people hyping how great winter will be and wait til next storm or next week's pattern change, it wakes it far worse. Sorry guys, tapping out! Pitchers and catchers can't get here soon enough!!!
This has got to be one of if not the worse winter in memory.This is true not only by what has been happening but because of the hype surrounding it in Oct-Nov.and the continuing "theres plenty of winter left","its nothing like last year' , "historic cold coming " etc.
If nothing else this winter has proven that mets ,no matter how good, cannot make accurate long range winter forecasts that have any credibility except by coincidence.In fact the mets have a tough time from 24 hrs away in the winter around here. This site and others have been talking snow chances for today -tonight here in SJ ,not much mind you ,but snow none the less. Now looking at the radar at 5:30 am it is a mass of green even in areas to our south that were supposed to get a significant snow ,and with the temp at 40 here in my back yard where 20 flakes are forecast.I don't see how this is going to happen.
It seems to me that signs this winter was not going to be what was predicted were apparent as far back as early December when the predicted cold never came and again in mid Dec. when delayed again. I mean right then and there the winter forecast already had already busted.I believe the mets should have seen this and changed the forecast then and there and admitted they may be way off from what they originally thought.Here again in January we seem to be playing the same game of manufacturing storms that never happen and especially cold air that never comes.
Instead of all this met speak ,look out the window,look at the temps and check the radar .
Well, I haven't posted this winter, but I can't ignore this and not thank Mike for the poetic blog - well done, and for the equally poetic and colorfully emotional descriptions of the frustration felt at yet another snowless mid-Atlantic winter. Disgraceful, yes, indeedy. We'll probably get a hurricane that brings storm surges into Pennsylvania this October. And I don't even want to THINK about how hot spring and summer in the mid-Atlantic might be this year. Yeah, it just might BE the worst winter ever. I didn't think it was possible to have another winter like last year.But at least we've gotten some precipitation, not like last winter, which was bone dry. El Nino, we hardly new ye.
This years MJO i think dropped sst's in the pacific way to much in which strengthened the southern ridge way too much and influenced PV just a lil too far north o where it would be normally. A stratespheric warming took effect that was significant enough to drop our temps down to the single digits for lows and teens for highs under normal circumstances wasnt enough to budge this persistant la nina like ridge . I guess as the waters get colder the westerlies get stronger because theres less upward motion to bust the upper level flow that is capping everything. The culperit here is the neg sst at the 3.4 nino region. It will take all winter and spring for this too recover. Sorry guys but after realizing what i just realized winter is done before it began. Its time to look forward to severe storms and hurricanes again. If this trend continues other sandys are in our future for sure.
Get all excited for winter weather and tracking snow. Wait months all spring summer and fall to track snow Nd this is the garbage that winter spits out? Like seriously. This winter is without a doubt this worst winter of my entire life.
We have a better chance at seeing a 3rd hurricane in Philly this year then we do a 2-4" snowstorm. There's something wrong.
Hello everyone I just signed up here, I'm from Norristown, PA. I recorded 1.1" of snow on Christmas eve and 3.3" a few days later with the second system and of course nothing since, since I love seeing snow it's really a drag.
Ha Rap is north but the influence of the northern jet looks like it wants to shear everything north of phila. I hate this when they go up north its too far and when they go far south they tease tease tease. My suspicion is the models are off by 50 miles to the south. The Rap is already picking up a slight diffrence
Lol Tim. That nam 4km shows Philly getting 3-6" of snow. That model is a mesoscale model for thunderstorms and usually way overdone on precip. If that were to happen tho.. Lol. That looks like a reapeat of jan 29-30, 2010 on that model Tim.