Nowcasting: We can already see the precip shield become more expansive than models are suggesting from the 12z model run. This plays a role in the future track of this system, as we have been saying here the stronger and more moisture involved the more north and west the heavy snow comes. Right now I am not arguing the apf amounts but focusing in on how models are missing the precip shield:
The current WV imagery also shows some promising trends. Notice the area circled in green, this ascent has been increasing and expanding north and west. The L is our main southern stream s/w that has closed off (forecasted). The arrow shows the stream of moisture coming in off the GOM. Situations like this always favor a northwest trend in the near term as models play catch up to the more dynamic situation. However, we will have to wait and see on if models are downplaying the apf by 7pm tonight.
Nam is much further south through 36. Ohwell. I give up. The one time the north and west trend DOES NOT happen is when we actually need it to. This is such BS. Philly just isn't gonna get snow this year.
Mike any remote chance this stormsmakes the turn up the coast at all and impacts eastern pa...seems like at this point it would be a fairly drastic shift but it has happened before, just wondering if yyou see anything that could make taht possible
I think the fact that the precip has lingered over the area so much today (dont remember that on the models 2 days ago!) shows that the storm will take the same track the last two have taken. its almost like they put down the railroad for this storm. I can still see this coming 150 miles NW, but gosh is it gonna take a miracle.