Nowcasting: We can already see the precip shield become more expansive than models are suggesting from the 12z model run.  This plays a role in the future track of this system, as we have been saying here the stronger and more moisture involved the more north and west the heavy snow comes.  Right now I am not arguing the apf amounts but focusing in on how models are missing the precip shield:

The current WV imagery also shows some promising trends.  Notice the area circled in green, this ascent has been increasing and expanding north and west.  The L is our main southern stream s/w that has closed off (forecasted).  The arrow shows the stream of moisture coming in off the GOM.  Situations like this always favor a northwest trend in the near term as models play catch up to the more dynamic situation.  However, we will have to wait and see on if models are downplaying the apf by 7pm tonight.

Check back at 3:30PM for 18z model analysis!