I remember just a few days ago stating that the models beyond 72 to maybe 96 hrs would have a hard time catching storm changes and this is the situation right now.
If the models verify and the NAM just did we could see a period of heavy wet snow in Central and Lower DE and Lower SNJ tomorrow night. We could see a Winter Weather Advisory or WINTER STORM WATCH for these areas in the next few hours to later today.
So the call from the NAM this morning is South Jersey and Delaware (Maryland too) snow event tomorrow night into Friday morning.
This is just one model on this run but we are about 36 hrs from the event so things will start to fine tune in the next two model runs.
WHAT: SOUTHERN SLIDER WHEN: 5pm Tomorrow to 3am Friday
WHERE: Mainly DE SNJ MD DC VA NC WVA
WILDCARD: NORTHERN DRIFT...SNOW/RAIN MIX IN SNJ/DE
Philly.... 0-1"(liquid .11")
Philly N & W... flurries to snow showers(liquid .07")
Wilmington.....Coating to 1" at this point(liquid .09")
Wrightstown-Ft Dix-Pemberton NJ...Wet Snow to Snow 1-2" (liquid .25")
Millville NJ...Rain/Snow to Snow 1-3"(liquid .50")
Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1209 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013
NJZ020>027-170115- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.130117T2300Z-130118T1000Z/ OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY- COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST 1209 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* LOCATIONS...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL 2 TO 6 INCHES.
* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
* VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.