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Jan 16 Potential
Its pretty far out, but it looks to start as rain for many the afternoon of the 15th, then change to ice, then to 5-7" of snow for PHL + SE.
May the snow gods look on us with favor.
Blog started by Swipe , on 138 days ago
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Way too early to worry about where the storm tracks. What we know is that the PNA will be transitioning to neutral or positive which should help with the ridge. The NAO should be tanking in this period as well which will help with the track. The details on the timing and track will be worked out. So far what we see is that the models are kind of all over the place showing anything from a cutter to a shunted system. 0Z Euro actually had some snow but even that has been inconsistent.
At this point just track it and see.
At this point just track it and see.
Thats a lot to say for one storm so many days out. 5-7 inches of snow is hard to get around here after a rain. This would have to be one big storm and to last a long time.
I think in reality even with this cold coming there is still only a chance it will bring snow with it .Many times we get cold and dry or suppression of storms .That would add insult to injury to this winter.
I love the reference to a "january thaw". A thaw from what ? Isn't a thaw something that happens when you have actually had some real cold preceding it which we here in SJ haven't had yet?
Based on what was expected this winter with just about every met forecasting below average temps and above average snow ,this winter has been a major disappointment so far and the next ten days don't look any better so that a good 50% of met winter will have gone by with practically no winter weather to speak of. The second half would almost have to be historic to balance it out.
I feel bad for those who depend on snow make money ,they must be particularly upset with what they thought was going to be a good winter for them.Busted forecasts effect more then just snow lovers ,there is an economic impact as well.
I love the reference to a "january thaw". A thaw from what ? Isn't a thaw something that happens when you have actually had some real cold preceding it which we here in SJ haven't had yet?
Based on what was expected this winter with just about every met forecasting below average temps and above average snow ,this winter has been a major disappointment so far and the next ten days don't look any better so that a good 50% of met winter will have gone by with practically no winter weather to speak of. The second half would almost have to be historic to balance it out.
I feel bad for those who depend on snow make money ,they must be particularly upset with what they thought was going to be a good winter for them.Busted forecasts effect more then just snow lovers ,there is an economic impact as well.
Sadly this storm looks like it's going to produce some pretty nasty severe weather down south, could be a tornado outbreak from this one with the extreme cold air invasion.
6z gfs is rain Tim. That's a heavy rain followed by a cold front. Precip is 6 hours previous to the current temp at the time. I wouldnt doubt this cold front having winter thunderstorms for us, thats a pretty extreme cold front. There's no snow there. Rain to snow NEVER works out in Philly when it's an impending cold front, cold will dry the precip out here.
Its the same thing always 10 days away ...its getting so frustrating
when its closer i will pay more attention .....................
lol.......who my kidding i will check every model run starting today..
its so addicting
when its closer i will pay more attention .....................
lol.......who my kidding i will check every model run starting today..
its so addicting
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/06/gfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
06z gfs shows heavy snow for the philly area. This will keep flip-flopping but good to look at.
06z gfs shows heavy snow for the philly area. This will keep flip-flopping but good to look at.
It is a great thing its east though, cause the storms this year have always trended back west. Atleast we got something to watch here.
Brent what are you looking at? lol '
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_216_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
how is that too far west? If anything its a tad bit east
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_216_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
how is that too far west? If anything its a tad bit east
Very Impressive Run of the 00z GFS. Still a little long ways out, but looks better than the previous by a lot with the cold for that snow.
GFS Southeast ridge holding ground while the majority of country sits in a large trough. This has got to forge Eastward or we are toast.
Que the music... Sunday the 13th look at the cold invade the entire country except along the edges.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_polar_132_1000_500_thick.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_polar_132_1000_500_thick.gif
Prior to this potential on the 15th. The GFs just floods the entire Continent East of the rockies and into Southeastern Canada with warmth and snow melting rains. All the snowpack looks to be in jeapordy in canada to our North.
The vortex gets shunted well North and becomes distorted.
The vortex gets shunted well North and becomes distorted.
Which one are you looking at? Cause I don't see how it is possible if the cold blast is coming like the 20th
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