Way too early to worry about where the storm tracks. What we know is that the PNA will be transitioning to neutral or positive which should help with the ridge. The NAO should be tanking in this period as well which will help with the track. The details on the timing and track will be worked out. So far what we see is that the models are kind of all over the place showing anything from a cutter to a shunted system. 0Z Euro actually had some snow but even that has been inconsistent.
I think in reality even with this cold coming there is still only a chance it will bring snow with it .Many times we get cold and dry or suppression of storms .That would add insult to injury to this winter.
I love the reference to a "january thaw". A thaw from what ? Isn't a thaw something that happens when you have actually had some real cold preceding it which we here in SJ haven't had yet?
Based on what was expected this winter with just about every met forecasting below average temps and above average snow ,this winter has been a major disappointment so far and the next ten days don't look any better so that a good 50% of met winter will have gone by with practically no winter weather to speak of. The second half would almost have to be historic to balance it out.
I feel bad for those who depend on snow make money ,they must be particularly upset with what they thought was going to be a good winter for them.Busted forecasts effect more then just snow lovers ,there is an economic impact as well.
6z gfs is rain Tim. That's a heavy rain followed by a cold front. Precip is 6 hours previous to the current temp at the time. I wouldnt doubt this cold front having winter thunderstorms for us, thats a pretty extreme cold front. There's no snow there. Rain to snow NEVER works out in Philly when it's an impending cold front, cold will dry the precip out here.
Prior to this potential on the 15th. The GFs just floods the entire Continent East of the rockies and into Southeastern Canada with warmth and snow melting rains. All the snowpack looks to be in jeapordy in canada to our North.
The vortex gets shunted well North and becomes distorted.