00z Euro looks like it is starting to showing some very good signs of the VERY cold air returning to the lower 48.
The +PNA is also showing up on these models, which will be very good for us if we want to start getting in on some very nice snowfall. Hopefully this time we will have the artic air in place before and during the storm.
BMR (Michael) - I am growing concern with the euro ensemble trends. I think we will see a return to cold and winter late January (after 20th) and February into March. But the arctic cold idea might be slowly eroding as I am watching the Pacific. I will blog on it tomorrow but the extension of the PAC jet in the long run will prevent PV from dropping if its right. But I want to see the 00z ens continue the trend of this before jumping ship on the arctic cold. Marginal cold and storminess appears where we are headed...only need one good one BMR!
That Southeast Ridge is a Monster on these models... I am a bit dissappointed in the Euro so far this winter in regards to temp profiles more than a week out.. and its NAO forecasts are not very reliable so far either....
It shows cold air only to come back with a warm solution... the last few runs have really backed off the cold for us and have maintained the Atlantic ridge having a larger influence on our weather..
There will be a few backdoor cold fronts to contend with, but southern parts of our area could easily flirt with 70 several times over the next 15 days... and overnight lows are just ridiculous.. the average low in Philadelphia is 25 degrees, it is not even forecast to drop below freezing for the next 10 days....
I'm still hanging on for February.... but things really need to start lining up quickly
Tim, with that kind of cold air and warm air lurking before and after this cold invasion, I would almost guarantee a major east Coast destructive Blizzard/Nor' easter maybe rivaling the 1978 February Lore'.
With The Progged type of blocking and a active Subtropical support just waiting is just outright "Terminal" !
Remember as winter moves towards March the South gets better at pumping moisture Northward, that is why February is our main month for snow in our parts if and when it occurs.
January, Feb, March of 78' -- Jan,Feb 79' and 1996 were all crazy winters, all produced snow here with cold temps which had brief warm ups imbedded. You need warmth to get precip events to be snow while the cold air sets up in our region. Warm air is a good sign believe it or not.
First time I witnessed Thunder Snow was in the late 70's winters.