The fact we will get warm next week does not bode well for the many who want the snow and cold! Look, I get it; I really do get it! When it's winter it's suppose to be cold and snowy. When it's summer it's suppose to be hot and sunny! The winter so far has been a let down for many. BWI has officially recorded 1" of snow so far (4"+ outside the city). So far we are at and slightly above the levels for 2011 which means we can only go higher from here! So what is next?
A series of things are beginning to unfold in the atmosphere. I will do my best to explain it as broad and simplistic as possible.
1. The MJO is switching to a cold phase.
2. A stratospheric warming event is underway.
3. The EPO and NAO are switching Negative supporting a MAJOR cold outbreak. Should all three come together.. WATCH out!
Things will get
a. Brutally cold
b. Historically cold in parts of the country and
C. We increase our chance for snow by 50X the level we were at.
Beginning to think that once we do go back cold again it won't be as cold as everyone thinks and it will not entrench itself for long either. Also think that once we do turn cold we will remain dry. This pattern is warm and wet and cold and dry b/c we can't seem to get anything in place to slow down the parade of storms and the ridge that looks to build out west is not really going to be in the best position either. I am not sold on anything other than a cold spell towards the end of the month. Hoping for the best, but expecting the same.
Last year you were accurate with your thoughts on how winter would be lacking wintry events.
This year you are pointing out valid points once again. I also think that when we expire that 20 day period you mention, that will more than likely drain the cold which would lead to a mild end to winter.
The cold air that is built up in Alaska Greenland and all places North are scary phenominal, we will see air that our young have never felt in many places ! !
In my lifetime (44 years) except for 1978 and 1996 our snowy arctic progressive patterns usually have a few weeks lifetime. Kinda like a atmospheric partying frenzy, then poof ' it ends. Hope I'm wrong,
Thanks for the synoptics.
Here is too "The Arctic Progressive Pattern Of 2013" ! !
If you have a crushing polar vortex that suppresses storms south yes.. BUT the negative NAO will allowing the storm track to come up the coast. We just need a storm. I see a few later this month..BUT plenty of time to watch and wait
Margin of error +1-2 weeks has been the typical pattern change timeframe. So by February 1-10 I expect this. Leave us with 2-4 weeks of winter. What are ya gonna do.. Historic years followed by 2 dismal years.