I hope you all had a good holiday season and are ready for what will be a fun and wild rest of winter.
We know that it will get colder again and that we will, in two weeks, be tracking opportunites for more snow. However, I would like to point out a few realites.
1) By the time the pattern becomes more favorable after Jan 15th, winter will be half over (winter defined as meteorlogical winter or the months of Dec, Jan, and Feb.).
2) After some misses on storms that are merely bringing in the cold air once the pattern changes we will be heading into Feb. After the first 2 weeks of Feb, we will be dealing with sun angle issues already.
Basicly, what I am saying is this winter is most likely going to be much like last winter: mild and snowless. Yes we may get a 6 inch storm, and yes we may get down to 5 or 10 degrees but overall it will be a ho hum winter. I expect total snowfall to be around 10 inches.
Of course I hope I am dead wrong and we get clobbered with back to back blizzards in early Feb a la 2010, but chances are we won't. We all know that. We all love tracking storms and pattern changes no matter what happens so enjoy it, but don't get frustrated if winter doesn't deliver for you. Winter never delivers this far south year after year. You need to move 300 miles north for that to happen.
I will give up scientific backed up evidence.... just for the Record February in the Philadelphia area historically is the snowiest month... go back and check the records.
Sun angle or not it can be your friend or foe getting later January right through Early April for that fact.
increased sun angles while it is a detriment most times to snowfall accumulation is needed to get the ball rolling often for temperature Contrasts which in the end cause the BIGGEST STORMS OF ANY WINTER and this usually occurs later in January and most of February.
Lots of winter to go my friend Meterological winter or not.
Thanks for being honest. I was thinking the same thing even if it does get colder the winter that we thought we were going to get didn't come .Most were hoping for The just above average that was being predicted by 99% of the pro mets .
The fact is the cold may not even come because prior predictions of big pattern changes coming haven't worked out why should or would anyone believe that the late january changes will happen?
What we have learned this winter if not the winters before is there is no accurate way to forecast future weather other then educated guesses based on certain weather variables .
lol, yea I was afraid of that but they all know its true. Of course the miracle snows may happen this winter but CHANCES are they will not. The pattern (i.e. AO, NAO) is not like 09-10 and winter is gonna be over sooner than we think.