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Nowcasting: 2:50PM
My latest snow map can be found here:
The latest data is fairly impressive with convection once again showing up on down south. This time it is much better since its not as deep and not as destructive and moving slower. The short range hi resolution models from 12z are showing this for right now (19z)
Notice the convection orientation on the radar compared to the models. This is a big difference and one reason why models continue to up the qpf amounts. Last storm we saw a rapidly moving line of storms that pushed east and helped lead to a further south and east sfc low. This is not the same storm, as convection is low topped and and will follow the mean layer winds in the lower levels.
It shows maximum tops are likely around 600mb with the mean wind from the SW resulting in a slow moving line as it nearly parallels the stronger forcing. This should enhance the low level jet further eastward than modeled and allow for a stronger and more focus on the southern low. Already this low is stronger than modeled and pressure falls ahead of it are rather impressive for this early on.
The stronger southern low will send a warm shot of air ahead of it but mostly before any precip moves in and could lead to some mixing and or rain initially at the shore but as this storm shifts east the cold air response will be just as impressive with a changeover to snow all the way to the coast. The stronger the low the more cold air it can pull in and the stronger the dynamics. Also watch for precip to move in a little bit quicker if this continues as precip shield to the NE should respond later today and tonight across the Southern Middle Atlantic with enhanced low level jet.
We rarely get big snow storms and Philly sports teams rarely win championships.
Makes all tough I guess. :)
Because Mother Nature does not act based on any forecast.
Go to any doctor and report that you have back pain. Each doctor will diagnosis a different cause and prescribe a different treatment plan.
Ask a sports expert to predict a game's outcome and each will pick a different score and winner.
With storms this close with regard to a rain/snow line no forecaster knows for sure the outcome and can only predict based on the limited info available to them.
Frustrating for sure but that is the limits to our ability at the present time.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php
i have the white towel in my hand
Relax they are doing a forecast based on the last model run. Mike just explained the models are playing catch up and not doing it well. We are so close that the initialization data being off (such as missing out on the storms strength and continually needing to up the precip amounts) creates errors. Models do not make forecast rather they provide guidance. Mike D and others here use the models and add in real time water vapor observations along with formation and wind data to create a forecast. When was the last time you heard a local meteorologist mention or show water vapor data. Here in PHL one station uses Accuweather for its forecast. They are limited in how much they can alter the info they receive in a broadcast. The others use mostly model data. That's why this site and its pros are more accurate.
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