The latest data is fairly impressive with convection once again showing up on down south. This time it is much better since its not as deep and not as destructive and moving slower. The short range hi resolution models from 12z are showing this for right now (19z)
Notice the convection orientation on the radar compared to the models. This is a big difference and one reason why models continue to up the qpf amounts. Last storm we saw a rapidly moving line of storms that pushed east and helped lead to a further south and east sfc low. This is not the same storm, as convection is low topped and and will follow the mean layer winds in the lower levels.
It shows maximum tops are likely around 600mb with the mean wind from the SW resulting in a slow moving line as it nearly parallels the stronger forcing. This should enhance the low level jet further eastward than modeled and allow for a stronger and more focus on the southern low. Already this low is stronger than modeled and pressure falls ahead of it are rather impressive for this early on.
The stronger southern low will send a warm shot of air ahead of it but mostly before any precip moves in and could lead to some mixing and or rain initially at the shore but as this storm shifts east the cold air response will be just as impressive with a changeover to snow all the way to the coast. The stronger the low the more cold air it can pull in and the stronger the dynamics. Also watch for precip to move in a little bit quicker if this continues as precip shield to the NE should respond later today and tonight across the Southern Middle Atlantic with enhanced low level jet.
i keep telling my 3 year old son it's gonna snow tomorrow because that's what i keep reading on here. this is now the 4th snowstorm for philly this year (forecasted). we've seen a trace. i'm just gonna stop telling him it's gonna snow because i keep getting worked up and i keep getting him worked up. just one time i would like it snow when the forecast calls for snow. otherwise, i'd like to see the forecast call for rain since it's clearly going to rain tomorrow. i'm hoping the next update on here forecasts the rain that's coming and not the 4 inches that isn't coming
The 18z gfs has the 540 line hovering around philly along the 295 corridor during the am hours. then as the late morning early afternoon progresses the line shifts eastward as the low gets east of Jersey/Delaware. It looks like between 4-7 o'clock is when the low cranks and snow gains the coastal areas and all of south Jersey.
I'm with you Phil. I have no idea who to believe anymore. It feels like i'm let down more from talk on this site than pleasantly surprised. I understand there may be some pandering to the masses but credibility must win out for this to be viable
of course philly is not going to see snow. it couldn't be more obvious. it's amazing how some forecasts can be on the total opposite of the spectrum. mike calling for 4-7 inches down the shore, rob calling for 3-5 in the city, and glenn saying all rain. please somebody explain to me how forecasts can differ this much. is there a secret model that only glenn knows about? if glenn says it's gonna rain, you can bet the farm it's gonna rain
Scoopy RGEM Says a decent hit of snow so I guess it is in the 4-6" camp let see what happens... split the difference with all the models and I think my map will work out except for South Jersey and Delaware but what is .3 to .5 snow to anyone anyways.
Ohwell. Gonna be another snowless winter. This year is even worse because instead of being no storms, were getting NOTHING but rain. Sick of these models showing snow 3 days before then a day before its rain.
GOD BLESS YOU SGTSNOW I was about to blow a gasket from all the model hugging going on. 4 different METS are telling everyone that what your seeing on the models is wrong. But no one is LISTENING! Thats why this is the best weather site in country! Rob,Mike,Steve,GEO don't model hug like the local channels.
The Northern stream is not going to inject enough cold air into this system. The southern stream is warm and moisture filled, if we had temps in 20's then i would be more prone to expect a decent snow event for the south and east areas. Mike even mentioned that this could start off as rain/mix due to the warmer southern influence, I hope this is not his seguay into lowering his amounts as we move forward.
i think hell be wrong.. the models show the 540 line east of philly for most of the event anyway... in addition to that the models are apparently not picking up on cooler air and the increase in the storms power. just wait and see what happens tonight to get a better idea. no need for everyone to get all negative and worked up lol
Tim Relax they are doing a forecast based on the last model run. Mike just explained the models are playing catch up and not doing it well. We are so close that the initialization data being off (such as missing out on the storms strength and continually needing to up the precip amounts) creates errors. Models do not make forecast rather they provide guidance. Mike D and others here use the models and add in real time water vapor observations along with formation and wind data to create a forecast. When was the last time you heard a local meteorologist mention or show water vapor data. Here in PHL one station uses Accuweather for its forecast. They are limited in how much they can alter the info they receive in a broadcast. The others use mostly model data. That's why this site and its pros are more accurate.
2-4 consecutive runs towards a certain solution is a trend. go read GEA's post. the NAM apparently is starting with temperatures that are warmer than the current readings. Also if I remember correctly, 2 of the runs each day have less data and are less reliable. i forget which ones though.