Delaware & Lehigh Valley Weather SNJ DE PA
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Models=Bigger Storm 1:30pm

Screen Shot 2012-12-28 at 10.36.45 AM

 

Ok so we are tweaking the forecast and if anything after looking at the Gulf of Mexico I'm seeing a bigger storm right now. The models came back up with a .35" on the GFS and .46" on the NAM. This means we are in 3-5" range for Philly Metro. The Euro is out soon and on the last run it actually went down a bot so we'll see if it can serve up more snow. 

 

We are on the edge of a WINTER STORM WATCH for Philadelphia and the Delaware Valley so we'll see if the National Weather Service decides to leave it at the WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY or take it up a notch.

 

HERE IS THE CRITERIA FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH...

 

Winter Storm Watch


Issued 36 hours in anticipation of a significant winter weather event (Watch), area specific as to the criteria for issuing such an advisory, and a warning within 12 hours of a storm if the threat becomes imminent.

 

Criteria for most of the Mount Holly forecast area (PHL SNJ DE LEHIGH POCONOS) is for 4 or more inches of snow expected and/or significant icing that could impact travel and property.

 

However the Northern counties of the Lehigh Valley and Poconos, the criteria is for over 6" expected to warrant such issuance.

 

Screen Shot 2012-12-28 at 10.43.35 AM

 

As you can see my change this morning from last night was a "maybe 3-5" to now a forecast of 3-5" in SEPA for tomorrow.

Screen Shot 2012-12-28 at 11.18.50 AM

TOTAL PRECIP FROM THE NAM MODEL JUST IN,,,,.51" Delaware with the jackpot over Bucks, Upper Montco, Lehigh Valley

 

 

Blog started by rob guarino , on 147 days ago
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Deb
Hi Rob:

Don't usually ask you directly like this, but can you give us YOUR update? People getting nuts...
147 days ago
 
Snowseeker
.51" is the amount of percipitation forecasted for that area in liquid form. same for the other numbers.
147 days ago
 
Southeastern PA Severe Weather
If the NAM verifies it would be an awful bust along I-95... dry slot I mentioned earlier sets up perfectly over I-95. Someone will likely get shafted in the region between the overrunning and the coastal low, the question is where.

147 days ago
 
Southeastern PA Severe Weather
Explain to us the last map you posted....Total precip. 61, 50, 45 ect...
You also wrote 51" Delaware with the jackpot over Bucks, Upper Montco, Lehigh Valley. I dont quite understand what the numbers mean.....
147 days ago
 
Rebelg
My favorite is number 5
147 days ago
 
Ken
how'd the Euro look?
147 days ago
 
mark e
How is it looking for west of DC?
147 days ago
 
Joe
Stay with the nowcasting - 18z RAP still looks south and some pretty good vorticity for banding

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=12&model_dd=28&model_init_hh=18&fhour=18¶meter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=loopmaps&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
147 days ago
 
tim riggins
Wow, Radar is looking better then modeled.
147 days ago
 
Snowfall100
Question how do u upload snow fall map
147 days ago
 
Marcus wild
Tim ignore the people calling for rain/mixes it won't make it past nj turnpike.
147 days ago
 
Marcus wild
Radar looks very nice... I'd like to see a more east movement though.

Looking forward to a now cast blog from defino.
147 days ago
 
tim riggins
hope this thing doesn't shift anymore or get more powerful, that would mean rain mixing in. But i already heard it might happen anyway.
147 days ago
 
Marcus wild
Nam snow fall map 4-6" through Philly. Slight shift east by 10-30 miles and 95/295 corridor jackpot.
147 days ago
 
Steve Kuzma
Start time still around 7am tomorrow?
147 days ago
 
ryan
My guess is 2.5 inches to 3 inches I am not sure if I am doing this right I been multiplying 0.25 by 10 is this the right way
147 days ago
 
Joe
Tough to say since we need to see how much mixing will take place
147 days ago
 
MacroburstMoses
So how much would that be Joe, for our area?
147 days ago
 
Southeastern PA Severe Weather
Is anyone worried about dryslotting over SEPA?
147 days ago
 
Joe
HPC QPF http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif
147 days ago
 


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