A very complex system will work its way into the area Saturday bringing snow to many. The new European model has lowered amounts big time but lets look at why?
I am going to use the European from last night (big storm 4-8") and compare it to the newer euro (1-3").
1) Is a slow moving system currently over North Dakota that is cut off from the flow. This is important because it will run out ahead of the main system and prevent it from gaining latitude.
2) The main system! This is the important one that is being impacted directly and indirectly by the other two. We need this to trend stronger and slower and stay south longer! This system helps develop a surface low over the GOM initially, but than the dynamics rapidly shift north and it takes longer for the two to meet and develop. This is why we are seeing the different tracks. Last nights Euro had the vort max over W NC and a strengthening low off Eastern NC. On the newer Euro the low does not meet up with the favorable dynamics until a little bit later resulting in lesser precip and a further east track.
3) This will be kicking the system along the whole time but more importantly it is going to push the system number 1 eastward.
On the new Euro notice that the southern stream system is faster and little bit weaker. Our current system in ND is not as east!
For an increase in snow totals and a stronger low tracking westward we need the main system in the SW CONUS to be stronger and slower. This should force it to develop the southern low quicker.
As of right now it appears the main system (2) is a little bit stronger and digging more than modeled but only slightly. The storng Sub tropical jet ahead of it is something models play catch up too. This is why we cannot completely abandoned the last nights european model.
I am liking the idea of the coastal areas seeing a good snow out of this. I wanted to extend the 4+" further westward even if the low does not develop as strongly and is further east as some good precip and banding may contribute to higher totals. However, I am going to wait for some more agreement amongst the short term models to narrow down the banding features and if it warrants an upgrade further west. Check back tomorrow for an updated map!
Models will most likely go back and forth like this. Should be interesting 0z's tonight. In my opinion the models are still trending up with this storm however. Just because the latest euro went down in totals dosen't really mean much cause the other models are acting opposite of it. We shall see what changes come if any in 0z tonight