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Saturday Snow 2:00am Update
BLOG SONG...Southern Sun by Tiesto
So we inch a little closer to the snow event on Saturday and several factors have to be looked at before putting out a snow map. Lets take a look at a few models just in regarding the storm this weekend.
The NAM is lost at this point and due to the current storm moving out the NAM may get a better look after 9:30am this morning. The GFS has been slowly increasing the aerial coverage of moisture and a bit more on each fun after backing off early yesterday.
The Canadian picked up the storm two runs in a row now after having it go out to see just yesterday. The Euro just in now shows a bigger storm with 4-6" of snow for Philadelphia metro on Saturday.
MY THINKING AT THIS POINT...
I been saying this for days and yeah I am still saying it. I like the trends on the GFS CMC and EURO...the NAM will come around later today. I still think a 2-4" snow event is of HIGH confidence at this point.
MIKE DEFINO'S BLOG ON THE SATURDAY STORM
Sounds good to me hearing that come from mount holly. Discussion notes the euro showing the "ideal track" for our area.
NWS is buying the euro. No reason not to considering what it did latest storm.
not to be greedy but would be nice to get 4+ ...lol
THIS TIME FRAME FEATURES AN INCREASING CHC FOR A WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OVER THE WEEKEND THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW. THE
PATTERN GENERALLY IS COMPRISED OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING FRIDAY THAT
QUICKLY SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
OCCURRING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SWEEP
EASTWARD WITH DECENT AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN SHOWING VARIABILITY WITH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVES, HOWEVER A BUILDING CONSENSUS IS POINTING TO ENOUGH
INTERACTION TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND ORGANIZE A DECENT
SURFACE LOW. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARRIVING ALONG WITH HEIGHT FALLS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SINCE
THE TROUGH IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE AMPLIFICATION/BASE, THE SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST COMPARED TO ITS
PREDECESSOR. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL COLDER THERMAL PROFILE
ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA. THIS LOOKS LIKE AN INTERESTING SYSTEM
AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
TO MOST OF THE AREA.
Saturday Night A chance of snow before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Per NWS. You know it's getting real when the NWS forecasts snow.
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