So we inch a little closer to the snow event on Saturday and several factors have to be looked at before putting out a snow map. Lets take a look at a few models just in regarding the storm this weekend.
The NAM is lost at this point and due to the current storm moving out the NAM may get a better look after 9:30am this morning. The GFS has been slowly increasing the aerial coverage of moisture and a bit more on each fun after backing off early yesterday.
The Canadian picked up the storm two runs in a row now after having it go out to see just yesterday. The Euro just in now shows a bigger storm with 4-6" of snow for Philadelphia metro on Saturday.
MY THINKING AT THIS POINT...
I been saying this for days and yeah I am still saying it. I like the trends on the GFS CMC and EURO...the NAM will come around later today. I still think a 2-4" snow event is of HIGH confidence at this point.
Can someone give me an idea of the timing and duration of this storm as we are hosting a party on Saturday night. In Voorhees? I thought initially that history was forecasted for the 30th (Sunday) has this changed? Thanks!
Looks like south of me (Wilm) will get more snow. Maybe a good snow for the DC area. Temps should be cold enough. Sat would be a nice day to play in the snow since I will have my 2 year old daughter. She has not played in the snow yet in her lifetime.
THIS TIME FRAME FEATURES AN INCREASING CHC FOR A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OVER THE WEEKEND THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW. THE PATTERN GENERALLY IS COMPRISED OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING FRIDAY THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OCCURRING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD WITH DECENT AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING VARIABILITY WITH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES, HOWEVER A BUILDING CONSENSUS IS POINTING TO ENOUGH INTERACTION TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND ORGANIZE A DECENT SURFACE LOW. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARRIVING ALONG WITH HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SINCE THE TROUGH IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE AMPLIFICATION/BASE, THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL COLDER THERMAL PROFILE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA. THIS LOOKS LIKE AN INTERESTING SYSTEM AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO MOST OF THE AREA.
I foresee alberta clippers,lake effect snows and single digit lows in our very near future. Whohooo!!!! Finally got to plow today and yes it felt good. The wallet feels even better...Let them dollar bills keep falling out of the sky.