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Saturday Storm 5pm Update
HERE ARE THE NUMBERS JUST IN THE FROM THE AFTERNOON GFS AND MORNING EURO MODEL.
NO PANIC FROM ME AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE MODELS COMING BACK WITH MOISTURE NOW.
WE NEED TO A BETTER LOOK TONIGHT/TOMORROW ONCE THE CURRENT STORM LEAVES THE REGION.
So we see a comeback on the models after dropping the storm south a bit. Better model data will be out tonight and tomorrow morning.
Ahhh the Canadian finally picked up the storm. The NAM is postioning itself for Saturday
Blog started by rob guarino , on 174 days ago
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Euro is pretty much on a roll right now. And it nailed this storm. So therefore it's hard not to say at this point Philly Is finally breaking its snow drought.
I'm sorry, but the Euro 4 days out is money,remember, it was the GFS that kept giving us fake snowstorms for this week. The Euro mostly held it's ground as far as a warmer solution for coastal areas.
Keep in mind that the Euro is the only model with this amped up classic snowstorm solution. The Ukie and CMC are close with the Americans far more progressive. If you play to their biases I would think you end up with a further east and slightly weaker system than the Euro just showed but still good enough for a 2-4, 3-6 type outcome. That being said the Euro just made the American models look stupid yet again with this storm so you can't dismiss the potential for something bigger.
I'm going to take my 2-4 and make it 4-7". The trend all day and night has been to increase the strength of the system as well as the snow totals. If it continues tomorrow....GAME ON.
Euro takes this as a 980mb to a benchmark track. It passes East of Jersey as a sub 990 and looks plenty cold. I'm on my IPAD so I can't pull up any of the fun stuff but I would think this would throw down more than 3-6 here and well over a foot for Eastern NE.
Well.
After these model runs tonight.. I'm pretty sure Philly is finally gona break their snow drought. Looks like we have a snowstorm coming folks. A typical Philly snowstorm with 3-6". Not 2009-2011 Philly snowstorms lol.
I'm upping my early call to 3-5" for Philly for now. Lets see where we are tomorrow night.
After these model runs tonight.. I'm pretty sure Philly is finally gona break their snow drought. Looks like we have a snowstorm coming folks. A typical Philly snowstorm with 3-6". Not 2009-2011 Philly snowstorms lol.
I'm upping my early call to 3-5" for Philly for now. Lets see where we are tomorrow night.
Euro agrees with gfs/GFES/ukie/ggem/SREF and also says 3-6" for Philly.
I say we're pretty consistent right now.. Pretty much only model not on board is the nam.
And we know how well the nam just handled this storm lol.
I say we're pretty consistent right now.. Pretty much only model not on board is the nam.
And we know how well the nam just handled this storm lol.
GEFS came in much wetter with highernaccum. Strong signal that coming runs could show more precip. With this setup you don't want it getting too amped up because it wold cut too far close to the coast.
Sounding better Jaryd. I still say coating - 2". Waiting for 12z Friday before I even make a call. Sick of these storms dying out as they get closer lol.
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