Keep in mind that the Euro is the only model with this amped up classic snowstorm solution. The Ukie and CMC are close with the Americans far more progressive. If you play to their biases I would think you end up with a further east and slightly weaker system than the Euro just showed but still good enough for a 2-4, 3-6 type outcome. That being said the Euro just made the American models look stupid yet again with this storm so you can't dismiss the potential for something bigger.
Euro takes this as a 980mb to a benchmark track. It passes East of Jersey as a sub 990 and looks plenty cold. I'm on my IPAD so I can't pull up any of the fun stuff but I would think this would throw down more than 3-6 here and well over a foot for Eastern NE.
After these model runs tonight.. I'm pretty sure Philly is finally gona break their snow drought. Looks like we have a snowstorm coming folks. A typical Philly snowstorm with 3-6". Not 2009-2011 Philly snowstorms lol.
I'm upping my early call to 3-5" for Philly for now. Lets see where we are tomorrow night.
GEFS came in much wetter with highernaccum. Strong signal that coming runs could show more precip. With this setup you don't want it getting too amped up because it wold cut too far close to the coast.