Well, I will start off by saying I have been really really busy with teaching regular 3rd Grade and Graduate School. Now the Holidays are here and you are stuck with me back at the Helm ready for Winter Weather that may turn Wild....>> WildWeather is back in da House!!
My Outlook for December Temps may be off but the snowfall may be just right or better?? Let's see what happens
Temps: +1 Degrees Above Normal Precipitation: Snow total for December: 1-2"
Winter Weather Outlook 2012-2013 Snowfall Totals
Snowfall Generally At or Slightly Above Normal 16-26” for the season as reported at Philadelphia International Airport.
While the NAO hovers near neutral the trends are for it to either stay neutral then go negative by the New Year which is good.
The AO is hovering also around neutral and the trend here is also to go negative by the New Year; again good signs
I think the biggest change is happening in the Pacific though is is excellent for us in the East take a look:
Clearly the PNA is heading positive which often means a Riodge in the West and subsequent Troughing in the East which has not been the case yet this year. When the PNA is positive usually with a neutral to negative NAO and AO only good things can happen when it comes to Snow!!
Snow Hope for Christmas!!
It's a modest snow hope but none the less it is there for Christmas Morning! It would be just enough to get things festive around here in the form of a Southern Slider. This Snow Hope should come into better view the next few days but I can see how we get a little something to the tune of 1-3" come Christmas Morning across the area!!
Big Promise of Snow Here:
This would be for New Years Day... If it came true a real Mummers Nightmare!! A set up like this would be calling for feet of snow!! Again this is the Pattern that I am looking for and I know that a lot of our Faithful Snowlovers are looking for! This storm that was sitting on the 12z GFS would be a Big Deal!!
THIS JUST IN 18Z GFS SHOWS:
CHRISTMAS SNOW HOPE= 3-6" IN THE MORNING!!
6-10" TO 8-12" FOR THURSDAY 12/27/12!! HERE'S FOR HOPING BUYING IT A BIT MORE THIS GO AROUND WITH A +PNA
The storm on Thursday 12/27/12 has the possibility to be a Miller B type storm where you have a storm head towards the Ohio Valley and then reform off the Virginia or Delaware Capes. How much cold air is in place ahead of this storm will be the real indicator if this is snow to rain or even ice is in this event??
While the NAO and AO are important the real important factor will be the emergence of a +PNA which will tap tremendously cold air in Western Canada and Alaska in time.
There's a lot that can go wrong with any of these chances but that's why it's good to be moving into an active pattern. The more storms to track the better chance that we get lucky with one of these things.
Great to be Back!! I was just very busy with school, Grad School, and Family Stuff to top it off I was really struggling with a tremendous cold basically Thanksgiving on through last week.
Now I am back just in time for the Real Weather Snow.... Things look really promising Christmas and beyond.
nearly 60 Below Zero in Western Canada near Alaskan Border get that +PNA going and bang down comes the cold air southeast and that should bump an Atlantic Ridge off the East Coast sending us a few really good chances of Snowstorms!
Kev, I agree with your points. The NAM has e tormsill ad the placement oit ad the now line will chang everal more times. Im more intersted in the 0000z GFS and EURO runs as these are the first ones with a full take after the AM front moved through. Still alot of time either way.
Well 0z NAM looks like snow Wilmington to Mulica Hill points north and west it is not a lot on this run but it will make for a Festive Christmas Morning.... Still on the edge of NAM's range.
Tell you what though the cold is pressing south and east and there is a tremendous increase in moisture over Texas which would likely be the storm ticketed for Wednesday Night and Thursday stay tunned.
We shall see how the models pick up on the extremely cold air up in Western Canada and the developing +PNA and also a southern Jet Stream that may load up with moisture in time. All of this equals big time snows along the Mid Atlantic Coast sometime between 12/25-1/4/13