BLOG SONG " Some "model" that I used to know...by Gotye
Now and then I think of when the pattern was together Like when you said you felt so happy you could die Told myself that you were right for me But felt so lonely in your pattern of three But that was love and it's an ache I still remember
You can get addicted to a certain kind of model Like resignation to the end, always the end So when we found that we could not make snow Well you said that we would still be friends But I'll admit that I was glad it was over
But you didn't have to cut me off Rainout like it never happened and that we were nothing And I don't even need your snow But you treat me like a stranger and that feels so rough No you didn't have to stoop near the low Have your friends collect your models and then change your pattern I guess that I don't need that though Now you're just snowstorm that I used to know
Now you're just snowstorm that I used to know Now you're just snowstorm that I used to know
Good Afternoon All...
As we head into next week one word is certain "ACTIVE". The entire weather pattern is gonna be one of change and at times rapid changes. Many of you are now hearing rain for Christmas, maybe snow or maybe even nothing at all. Many media outlets will play the most simply answer as in the rain card because if it snows it's a Christmas miracle right.
The models are somewhat at war and well confused at which storm plays off the other and the bigger problem is where and when do you slide the cold pools of air known as bubbles of HIGH pressure in Canada? The good news is we have a stormy pattern so we do have several chances for snow...the bad news is the models are not making this simple.
The models do see the shots of cold air they just have different solutions on where to blend the cold with stormy. Every storm plays off the other and we have chances of snow/mix/rain Dec 25 Dec 27 Dec 31 Jan 03...so yeah this will be a time of watching the models and the temps jump all over the place.
***On a side note***
This current storm with thunderstorms, 60mph winds and 2.00"+ was bigger and stronger than expected...I have a feeling we are getting pieces of El Nino from the Pacific because the pattern out in the West sure looks like El Nino right now. The -AO (Arctic Oscillation) will kick in slowly but surely and add the two together and I still think and feel in my gut a big storm is lurking out there along the East Coast.
So you see to make a call of no white Christmas 4 days away is not the call to make right now at all. It's still up in the air but I like the odds after looking over a few things.
MY THINKING ON THE FRUIT CAKE OF STORMS...
If you simply look over the three models this morning they are not that far off at all on the thinking for Dec 24-25. We are talking a difference of a few degrees and a difference of .10-.15" of precip...uhhhh four days out that is a GOOD thing not a bad thing.
*****The new EURO just in says both storms are .40"+ and both cross right over the I-95 region...what else is new..right. The Euro is trending east and to the coast so this makes this forecast even more interesting the next 6 days. As we say STAY TUNED...it's getting even more interesting !
We have to wait until this storm today leaves by tonight to get a better handle on this potential system. In the weather world this is called a shortwave or bump in the atmosphere....the bigger long wave comes December 27-28.
These pesky quick storms are hard to nail down four days out...think of this as the sporty BMW and the Dec 27-28 as the Septa City Bus. The bus will be slow and well you can't miss it.
The smaller BMW is quick and will turn on a dime. The model runs tonight (9:30pm-12:30am) will start to track the sports car and see if it wants to head north...south or somewhere in between.
The trend east continues and so do rhe models flippin like a pancake . Hmmm maybe i'll hit ihop tomorrow anyway im like the snow chances for christmass and for the 27th. The storm on the 3rd is no slouch either. Good pattern setting up get your shovels ready, Ice scraper ready, snowtires, battery, winshield wipers checked.
I am more interested in the next full set of model runs at 0000z. They will be the first full set with data picked up completely after this front has moved through. Kinda of like knowing exactley where to start all the players. Of course that may be me not wanting to believe the 1200z GFS and EURO models for the 27/28 storm. AccuWeather already dumpped its 3-6" alert for Chalfont for 24/25th Now the message is just possible snow. They seem to be model hugging the GFS on each run.