Since late November, I have been pushing the idea that a pattern change would occur, plummeting the east coast into cold and snow by December 14th/15th. We sit here on a Sunday evening scratching our heads and saying .. Well, where is our pattern change?
As I have said all along you could have the best set up on the eastern sea board (negative NAO, strong Arctic Oscillation) yet, as long as the Pacific does not play nice much of that will be wasted.
What is going on in the Pacific now has lead to a very cool western USA while the eastern US states remained warm. Storm after storm has forced a dip in the jet stream known as a "Trough" over the west coast. When you dip the jet stream out west, you force an over abundance of mild pacific air over much of the United States. This has blocked all the arctic air from coming south and east leaving us with above normal temperatures.
I firmly believe that once we open the cold source region up (in red) and transport it south we will not break the cold pattern. There is just too much cold air available and even if it was modified a bit it would still be COLD!
Going to agree with whiteout here. For the next 15 days.. Yet gain negative PNA, warm on the east coast storm track through the lakes. Nothing is going to change until at least after New Years after this point.. And dec 1st it was gonna change dec 15, see what I'm getting at here? Enough cold weather outlooks. They haven't been right in over 2 years. We need to stick to 2-3 day forecasts right now because no one forecasting winter for the east coast has been right.
Lets face it our winters are in a warm phase right now. Below average snow above average temps will happen yet again this year.
Actually, meteorological winter starts on December 1st and that is what I go by. The pattern still looks terrible. When is the last time that we had a terrible December and actually ended up having a good winter? I can't remember many...that's for sure!
Hmmmm....patience since the beginning of LAST WINTER. Sorry, but all I see is lake cutters on the GFS through the end of the year. Based on the PNA staying negative, I believe that will be the correct solution.