Dec 18-20 Possible storm thoughts

Delaware & Lehigh Valley Weather SNJ DE PA
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Dec 18-20 Possible storm thoughts

I figured we could post observations and model analysis here for the possible coastal storm next week. Most models are all over the place. Latest 00z GFS has storm going OTS and storm comes together too late. Euro is too warm and basically a rain storm. Although....there are some ensembles that are colder and closer to having something interesting around here.

We are still 5 days out and there is plenty of time for models to correct to a snowier solution. I think by Sunday we may have a better idea of this storm and it's potential. Cold air may also change precip to snow. Also depending on the strength of the system, it can produce it's own cold air with dynamics.

Rain does seem like the better chance, but you never know. I am still learning a lot about interpreting models and forecasting weather, so please post your thoughts and comments on this potential storm.

Blog started by Jaryd More , on 161 days ago

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Heat Island 718

Models will have a better handle on the storms after the 18th when the pacific energy arrives on the west coast. The ensembles are hinting on somthing colder because the algorythms incolved calculating energy transfer from the pacific to west coast are diffrent from the global models that handle continental formulations. Sundays initialization of the GFS will have to monitored for potential shifts in the forecast after the 18th. Just me speculating.

161 days ago

Rich cinaglia

You can bet that when the odds are in favor of rain thats what you will get.When you have to depend on a storm producing its own cold air .......well forget about it.

The fact is that the winter forecast is already not verifying as projected and it is very reminiscent of last year when the cold was always ten days away and never came.

Instead of Dec. being below normal it will finish above normal and chances for snow ,almost non existent .

161 days ago

Harry

Dom, take a chill dude. Weather isn't written in stone. We could make a prediction now for Jan 1 based on models and weather knowledge that could totally change. How many hurricanes and major storms predicted in the past changed at the last minute? btw... if you live in MA, why are you posting here? This blog is for the area outside of Philly.

161 days ago

Heat Island 718

Hello everyone,

Thanks Mike and Rob for taking your time to explain everything. I appreciate that you take the time to do so. I just want to say i have an uncontrollable disposition for atmopheric sciences since a little boy I always felt that it was corny thing to feel but i coulnt help myself. Just want to im happy to be part of this, and I understand its a speculative buisness where in, but every storm is a learning experience for me even im right or wrong. I have seen Models do some ridiculous things over the years while observing them but i still have this facination in the science of it all. So play on player. Keep them comming.

161 days ago

Dominick Mogstad

What gets me is that this website has been predicting below average temperatures and MUCH above average snow for the northeast, and yet it is mid December and its too warm for it to even snow. After this, there is no snow in sight before Christmas, therefor another false prediction by this website. Massachusetts will not be getting a white Christmas this year, contrary to what was said.

161 days ago

Jaryd More

Nice thanks for the explanation.

162 days ago

Mike DeFino

Because we are switching patterns. We are coming out of a warm pattern so the air ahead of it is rather warm. Also some of the warmer models are showing a pure southern stream system ride up with northern stream lagging behind. This results in a warm low. But if we see more interaction like CMC and GFS show it is a different situation.

162 days ago

Jaryd More

Yeah plenty of time IMO. The Euro does have something nice looking at hour 192. Mike, why is this storm different from normal. Usually in December if you have a coastal that may be a BM track, it always seems great for snow lovers. Not this time?

162 days ago

Mike DeFino

Potential is certainly there. The models are all over the place, the pattern is so active that there is almost too many lows to keep track of haha. But I like the GFS upper levels but it is way off on sfc features.

Dec 18-20 Possible storm thoughts

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