I hope this turns out alright. I haven't done a blog in awhile on here and things look quite a bit different. Anyway, I think that mid November is a good time to get a feel for what the upcoming winter may look like. I have heard some people suggest that this year will be a repeat of last year's joke of a winter and I will disagree with that! My reason are below.........................
1. The NAO was positive most of last fall. I think the only time it was negative was during the freak late October snowfall. The NAO has been negative for a good portion of this fall and that looks to continue. There is also above normal water temps around Greenland which tends to promote a -NAO. Last November was basically a blowtorch, while this November has generally been below normal and will probably finish below normal for the month(a big difference from a year ago).
2. It looks like snowcover is getting well established in our cold source regions(Siberia,NW Territories, Canada). Snowfall in Siberia has actually been above normal since the beginning of October! This tends to drive the jet stream farther south and the cold shots have more power to them. We are kind of seeing a hint of that with the airmass we have over us now. This air is not arctic in origin and yet we are still experiencing below normal temps! The NAO is actually positive and we are still seeing chilly temps!! That is a good sign for those that want cold and snow this upcoming winter.
3. I am predicting temps to average 1 to 2 degrees below normal for this upcoming winter season with snowfall ranging between 20-40 inches across Philly and the burbs! I know that is a pretty wide range, but trying to forecast down to the inch for the entire winter season is usually a losing proposition. So basically, I am saying slightly below normal temps for the winter with average to above average snowfall!! What could go wrong you ask??? I am a bit concerned about conditions in the Pacific. The PDO is in a cold cycle and that tends to lead to troughs in the western U.S., and the PNA has been negative for much of the fall. This will need to be watched, because if this stays the same it will be harder to get he coastals to give us the big snows(progressive pattern). Anyway, enjoy the upcoming winter!! It should be much more interesting than last winter!!
Hi Cynthia, I would think Syracuse would also have somewhat below normal temps with plenty of LES(Lake Effect Snow) this winter. There should be plenty of arctic air coming out of Canada and blowing across the Lakes to produce the snow!