A very impressive cold front will push through with a band of heavy showers and possible thunderstorms. Above are two different models radar simulations. The ARW is more impressed with the convective potential but the WRF NMM highlights the leading edge with a band of heavier rain.
Check out the temperature change in Pittsburgh, PA. Go from the upper 60's during the day Monday to overnight lows in the mid to upper 20's.
The Good News:
- Rainfall will be short duration and amounts will be low
-Winds aloft will be weaker over the areas that were hit hard with the nor'easter and Sandy
The winds aloft reduce to 40-45Kts in the lower levels. These winds will be capable of mixing down producing gusts in heavier rain bands up to 35-40mph. Short lived rain event will keep this from becoming a bigger problem.
Thunderstorms are possible. The threat is low but ingredients are lining up to produce a fairly dynamic line of heavier rain and some embedded thunderstorms. Surface based CAPE will be nonexistent (good news) this will make it hard for wind gusts to make it to the sfc. However, right above the sfc at 950mb we see sufficient instability to produce thunderstorms.
The combination of the strong low level and sfc convergence with the MU parcel around 950mb could release the potentially unstable layer around 650mb that could enhance the thunderstorm potential. This dry layer will also aid in increasing wind gusts in thunderstorms. If thunderstorms do develop wind gusts could reach up to 50-55mph.
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