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New Winter Outlook 2013-2014 Update May 19, 2013
OUR AWARDS...20 YEARS OF FORECASTING
The Winter ahead for 2013-2014 will see bigger changes than the last two winter in several ways. We'll be in either a moderate to strong El Nino or La Nina.
The Winter of 2012-2013 came late for many and boy did it stick around for places like Minneapolis, Green Bay, Denver and even Boston and parts of New England.
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Blog started by rob guarino , on 2 days ago
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one other thing. Do you have a blog going about the new terminology from the NWS for Winter Storms yet?
How do you feel about it?
How do you feel about it?
Rob,
Can you explain what happened with the mid atlantic "Saturn"/"Snowquester" storm.
From what I see it didnt bomb out as much as they thought. It did deepen more rapidly then the GFS and NAM said it would, thus starting out as Snow rather then rain as predicted.
But it looks like it pulled away from the coast a lot faster then they thought. Over land it could generate its own cold air but then it got over the warmer waters, it seemed like instead of pulling cold air down, it pulled warm air up. You could watch the blue (snow) on the radar turn to green (rain) in a matter of an hour over the entire storm. Kind of cool to see on the radar.
But the NWS took a lot of time and even delayed the Winter Storm Warnings because they were concerned the rain snow line would move back and forth but once it started snowing, the models went crazy upping the snow totals and so the pros (like yourself) fell for it and started upping their totals.
Am I close? Is the moral of the story to go back to meteorology as a science and not a license to read a computer screen?
Sorry if I am being to deep for the blog but in the DC area they have blown at least 2-3 forecasts this winter. Even one storm they had winter weather advisories out for 2-4 inches and we never saw a flake!!!
Can you explain what happened with the mid atlantic "Saturn"/"Snowquester" storm.
From what I see it didnt bomb out as much as they thought. It did deepen more rapidly then the GFS and NAM said it would, thus starting out as Snow rather then rain as predicted.
But it looks like it pulled away from the coast a lot faster then they thought. Over land it could generate its own cold air but then it got over the warmer waters, it seemed like instead of pulling cold air down, it pulled warm air up. You could watch the blue (snow) on the radar turn to green (rain) in a matter of an hour over the entire storm. Kind of cool to see on the radar.
But the NWS took a lot of time and even delayed the Winter Storm Warnings because they were concerned the rain snow line would move back and forth but once it started snowing, the models went crazy upping the snow totals and so the pros (like yourself) fell for it and started upping their totals.
Am I close? Is the moral of the story to go back to meteorology as a science and not a license to read a computer screen?
Sorry if I am being to deep for the blog but in the DC area they have blown at least 2-3 forecasts this winter. Even one storm they had winter weather advisories out for 2-4 inches and we never saw a flake!!!
Rob and fellow readers. Thought you might get a smile out of this so I am reposting.....
This poem was submitted in our comment section as yesterday’s Snowquester storm was winding down. It is brilliant, so I’ve chosen to republish it for all to see. My thanks to commenter “DC Rocks” for composing and submitting. - Jason Samenow, editor
Twas the night before Snowquester and all through the land,
the snow lovers were giddy and rubbing their hands.
Snowblowers and shovels were nestled in the garage,
snow was finally coming, this was not a mirage.
The children were ready for a day off of school
so they ignored their homework, their bedtimes and rules.
And I in my Mukluks and mamma in her Uggs
fretted a day cooped up with kids, best treated with drugs.
Four Aleve, One Xanax and two Ambiens ago,
I woke up at midnight and what do you know?
Away to the window I flew like a flash,
tore open the shutters and broke the damn sash.
The moon on the breast of the new fallen snow,
gave the lustre of mid-day to, wait...
THERE’S SNOW???
It’s been two lonely years without my pale friend,
it’s been a long road but it’s back here again.
Overjoyed I high-fived a squirrel in a tree,
Did I take two Ambien, or was it actually three?
Asleep once again my worries melted away,
Snow had found us again and it was here to stay.
Filled with joy in the morning, our snow angst had parted,
there’s an inch on the ground, but it’s yet to get started!
The storm’s ramping up, there’s much more coming you see,
said my best friends in blogland.
Could it be, yes indeed, our snow desert would end,
exceeding two inches is a safe bet my friends.
I pored over maps, the dynamics were there,
it’s 38 down here but up there there’s cold air.
The rapidly falling precipitation would bring
a speedbump in our dismal, forced march into spring.
Alas as we waited, and waited some more,
rain’s all that was falling, promising snow nevermore.
With gloating flowing in from our friends in the west,
where the inches of powder were piling up best.
Sleds, boots and shovels sat waiting, the snow was no more,
you burned us again, damn I-95 corridor!
With heads down and tails tucked we gave up our fight,
Jim Cantore is gone, caught the 3:30 flight.
And I heard him exclaim, ‘ere he flew away from me,
Snow’s not your thing DC, but you got RGIII.
This poem was submitted in our comment section as yesterday’s Snowquester storm was winding down. It is brilliant, so I’ve chosen to republish it for all to see. My thanks to commenter “DC Rocks” for composing and submitting. - Jason Samenow, editor
Twas the night before Snowquester and all through the land,
the snow lovers were giddy and rubbing their hands.
Snowblowers and shovels were nestled in the garage,
snow was finally coming, this was not a mirage.
The children were ready for a day off of school
so they ignored their homework, their bedtimes and rules.
And I in my Mukluks and mamma in her Uggs
fretted a day cooped up with kids, best treated with drugs.
Four Aleve, One Xanax and two Ambiens ago,
I woke up at midnight and what do you know?
Away to the window I flew like a flash,
tore open the shutters and broke the damn sash.
The moon on the breast of the new fallen snow,
gave the lustre of mid-day to, wait...
THERE’S SNOW???
It’s been two lonely years without my pale friend,
it’s been a long road but it’s back here again.
Overjoyed I high-fived a squirrel in a tree,
Did I take two Ambien, or was it actually three?
Asleep once again my worries melted away,
Snow had found us again and it was here to stay.
Filled with joy in the morning, our snow angst had parted,
there’s an inch on the ground, but it’s yet to get started!
The storm’s ramping up, there’s much more coming you see,
said my best friends in blogland.
Could it be, yes indeed, our snow desert would end,
exceeding two inches is a safe bet my friends.
I pored over maps, the dynamics were there,
it’s 38 down here but up there there’s cold air.
The rapidly falling precipitation would bring
a speedbump in our dismal, forced march into spring.
Alas as we waited, and waited some more,
rain’s all that was falling, promising snow nevermore.
With gloating flowing in from our friends in the west,
where the inches of powder were piling up best.
Sleds, boots and shovels sat waiting, the snow was no more,
you burned us again, damn I-95 corridor!
With heads down and tails tucked we gave up our fight,
Jim Cantore is gone, caught the 3:30 flight.
And I heard him exclaim, ‘ere he flew away from me,
Snow’s not your thing DC, but you got RGIII.
IT MAY NOT BE OVER for those of us on the Mid Atlantic. Conditions are coming together to favor a Major Mid Atlantic Storm March 6-7 on the East Coast. My best guess would be Richmond to New York. Its still very early and if this storm follows the path of the others, it may go right out to see. And then we need the cold air, and enough of it to fight the warm air coming aloft from the moisture the storm will take from the Gulf of Mexico. So stay tuned. If this one does not work out, I think that wraps up Winter for the mid atlantic so keep your fingers crossed.
It's looking like a pretty good chance at below normal or above normal snowfall depending on where you live. This pattern is not conducive for snow in Miami and probably not shorts weather in Bangor, ME.
We are still about 9 months out so we should be able to really get in on the details when the NAM gets in range!
Hey Rebel where is the 5AM update on this one? I'm waiting and ready to take notes!
Tea Anyone?? Lets Party!!!
We are still about 9 months out so we should be able to really get in on the details when the NAM gets in range!
Hey Rebel where is the 5AM update on this one? I'm waiting and ready to take notes!
Tea Anyone?? Lets Party!!!
We'll either be in a moderate or strong El Nino or La Nina. Wow. The weather gods have really stuck their necks out on the prediction for next winter. What's next ... the sun'll come out ... tomorrow?
We had 6.2" so far. Im assuming Virginia has gotten all the snows that DC has missed out on. We had 4 measurable snowfalls but this is still a snow drought. By this time of year, on average you would expect 18 inches by now. We have had wintry weather. Its been more ice than snow this year and i HATE ice. I cant tolerate ice. Tonight we may get an inch of snow before switching to sleet and freezing rain during the day. Under winter weather advisory now.
For those of you in VA, MD, DC, the way the jet stream is, and the long range model shows, I think the winter that never happened is coming to an end soon.
We all thought last year was bad. We probably had about 10 inches of snow total in western VA and only a few inches in DC itself.
But this year, predicted to be 20-30% above average on this blog and other places, was the worst winter I can remember. I dont think DC had a measurable inch of snow. Plenty of dustings but nothing you could plow.
Its pretty sad when we normally get about 18-25 inches a year where I am and the last two years we have had nothing. If it wasnt for that one good year a couple of years ago where we had over 100 inches of snow (I think about 75 in DC) I would be sure our days of good winters (like when I was a kid) are over.
Benda, how much did you get down your way? Didnt you have one storm with measurable snow.
We all thought last year was bad. We probably had about 10 inches of snow total in western VA and only a few inches in DC itself.
But this year, predicted to be 20-30% above average on this blog and other places, was the worst winter I can remember. I dont think DC had a measurable inch of snow. Plenty of dustings but nothing you could plow.
Its pretty sad when we normally get about 18-25 inches a year where I am and the last two years we have had nothing. If it wasnt for that one good year a couple of years ago where we had over 100 inches of snow (I think about 75 in DC) I would be sure our days of good winters (like when I was a kid) are over.
Benda, how much did you get down your way? Didnt you have one storm with measurable snow.
Well....we had a chance for a major winter storm in the mid atlantic again this weekend but now if it forms it will be another northeast storm/blizzard. Now all we get is another clipper with an inch. I see a little more potential in a store around the 22-23 of Feb...well at least more then a dusting potential. The jet stream is dropping and a series of storms are going to head further south so keep your fingers crossed in the mid atlantic. Not much time yet to make up for our major snowfall deficit. We are supposed to get 20-25 inches a year where I live west of DC. This year we had another dusting yesterday. Total maybe 3-4 inches so far and a lot less near DC. But with that said- one good storm and we would be back on track.
Its sad how they have to treat an inch of snow as if its a foot. Winter storm warnings are issued, it tops the weather stories as well as the news. Ive been living here my whole life, Ive seen snows knee deep several times. Those were the real winters. Now were lucky to see a few inches each winter. I feel like im living in North Carolina now
I was really counting on the El Niño this year which never happened. I too wish we could have one good snowstorm (Winter Storm Warning Classification storm) before its all over. We have not even had 3 inches of snow yet!!!
And NOAA has to change their winter storm stuff. We had a winter storm watch that never happened. The local stations were all saying they were surprised they issued a winter storm watch and it never happened. I don't think they realize a watch is a watch. A warning means it is coming. And NOAA issued Winter Weather Advisory for a dusting because it was during rush hour but issued nothing for the 1 inch storm we had. They need better classifications of Winter Storms so people who don't study this stuff like we all do know what they are being warned about.
And NOAA has to change their winter storm stuff. We had a winter storm watch that never happened. The local stations were all saying they were surprised they issued a winter storm watch and it never happened. I don't think they realize a watch is a watch. A warning means it is coming. And NOAA issued Winter Weather Advisory for a dusting because it was during rush hour but issued nothing for the 1 inch storm we had. They need better classifications of Winter Storms so people who don't study this stuff like we all do know what they are being warned about.
Central Virginia has only had 5" of snow for the whole season. This is still a deep snowfall deficit. It was 54 degrees today, this winter is just another fake. Richmond, Lynchburg, Roanoke and even up towards DC are well below the winter normal. I would like one more good snowstorm before spring but this isnt the year for snow. We can only expect a cold rain from that "nor'easter" what a rip off. Im ready to give up. Even last winter had more snow than this one.. You know thats bad!! I hate this winter so much. Last winter was bad but not this bad. The Mid Atlantic states arent doing so well this year. 2012-13 turned out to be pathetic
As of now it looks like even NYC will be mostly on the wintery mix/rain side of the storm. New England will probably see the most snow. POPs have been increased in most areas that this storm will happen, but at this point watches have been issued only for new England areas where the possibility of a blizzard exists. But even if it happens, this storm will rapidly intensify and may pull in some warm air to those regions too. Since it hasn't even formed yet, all we can do is wait and see. I am hoping it finds a way to pull in colder air to DC area but as of now it is rain or ice here west of DC.
Yes, but if it forms as expected it will be well north-east of us. I am in the northwest DC suburbs. The ones that get us have to form well south-east of our area to pull in the cold air.
But some of the biggest storms for us have come out of the gulf and head up the coast from there.
But some of the biggest storms for us have come out of the gulf and head up the coast from there.
I agree no Nor Easter storms. Its not that the East Coast has not been cold enough for snow. Its that the storms seems to follow regular clipper patterns and go right out to sea.
So Rob, looking at the long range, I dont see too many more cold snaps for the east coast. So it looks like we will need a strong storm to pull in the cold air.
Do you think it will happen or is Winter (what there was of it) over?
So Rob, looking at the long range, I dont see too many more cold snaps for the east coast. So it looks like we will need a strong storm to pull in the cold air.
Do you think it will happen or is Winter (what there was of it) over?
What we need is a good old fashioned Nor Easter of the A MIller variety to pop from the gulf and ride the coast to atlantic canada. I feel Feb 15 th through the 19th time frame is a posibility. Mark my words. Its been miss,miss and miss again. We are due !
Lee...
February is such a "wildcard" as the cold air does make a run at the beginning and end of the month.
February is such a "wildcard" as the cold air does make a run at the beginning and end of the month.
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