Thank you for that update. I was basing that on his new change on his Mid-October Plume ENSO Prediction chart. It shows the starting point for El-Nino getting over 40% around the month of June and seeing the El-Nino rise jump from 4-12% around February. A couple of months ago, the earlier chart showed El-Nino starting around February or March but that was wishful thinking on my part. The trend to me appears like next years winter El-Nino looks more promising but I could be wrong. I'm only an hour south of the North Georgia mountains and the southeast locality makes a big difference in the arctic fronts.
TWC and Dr. Greg Postal have changed their predictions this winter to an above normal Temps and precip for the mid- atlantic and the southeast. What changes have prompted his reconsideration. You still are calling for 2-4 degrees colder.
In Northern Georgia this year it seems like El-Nino will be delayed from February until June unfortunately, so I may assume that a decent snowfall may not happen until late January until February if any will even stick to the ground hopefully. I am hoping that the 2014-2015 winter that El-Nino would hit hard by at least late fall and early winter so it would be like our 2010-2011 winter when we had a 5" snowstorm sticking for 3 days with below freezing temperatures! I will never forget every arctic air mass coming down as far as central Georgia with snow! I love El-Nino!
I see some encouraging signals for our upcoming Winter. Most are forecasting a warm December, which is entirely understandable. I had said on October 10th that I thought we may see more of a frontloaded Winter and that has not changed. Also, the PDO is not as negative as it was and has actually moved closer toward neutral, (which was quite surprising). The PDO is still negative, but it crushing any chance of a major snowstorm here is lessened by it not being as negative as it was. In short, I suspect that December may be colder and yes snowier, than most are predicting. I am still looking over things and am preparing a Winter forecast.
Hi Alicia, the NAO can only be forecasted out to 2 weeks, with degrading skill as time passes. That said, the NAO forecast will likely verify. To answer your question, I personally think that the -NAO October is leading to a relaxed NAO in November, that I believe will go back negative this Winter. This is the reason that in my first thoughts blog regarding the 13/14 Winter, I predicted a likelihood of a frontloaded Winter.
Also Brenda, "Brenda L. Accuweather is calling for a record warm December. Please tell me this isn't going to happen! I would be fine if this winter ended up like wi2012-13 as long we don't repeat 2011-12 Any ideas how November and December will play out for Virginia?" Brenda, It is almost laughable that anyone would call for a "record warm December," Brenda, you don't hplease, with the current regime, a "record warm DEC," will almost certainly not happen happen, unless things change drastically and quickly both of which are extremely unlikely, biu, say will not or anything along those lines when it comes to weather is dangerous.
If you go on ole wives tales then I would say Marion Indiana could possibly see a snowy and cold winter. Black woolly worms spiders invading the house by the dozens also squirrels fighting over food and hunting for food already the tails of them are very bushy.Plus the berries are double budding this year making it plentiful. I wonder I know the Southern jet stream is what to look out for butt just for discussion purpose I will ask what Marion Indiana and northern Indiana looks to be like for the winter of 2013/2014 ???
I believe we will have a mild December (much like last year) but hopefully we wont see anything like 2011-12. Accuweather is making it sound like I should put away my snow shovel and keep the AC handy!
If you look at the Washington, DC/DC Metro area site, it has a section that says December will have a slow start to Winter but the worst will be Jan and Feb. Look at the first graphic. I don't think it will be as bad as last year though.
Brenda, the accuwx outlook is due to them making several errors, one of which is discussed by myself in a blog last night, you can click on my profile and check out my last comments and you''ll see it, it is a response to Armando and goes into some detail on the accuwx forecast.
I use Accuweather for data purposes only, that is unless I want a good belly-laugh at their 45 day forecast. Pay no attention to them. Of course, that does not mean that what they say will not happen, chances are almost always good nowdays for a warm start to ANY winter.
Accuweather is calling for a record warm December. Please tell me this isnt going to happen! I would be fine if this winter ended up like winter 2012-13 as long we dont repeat 2011-12!! Any ideas how November and December will play out for Virginia?