Big Pacific Storm to kick off El Nino Soon for California, Oregon & West Coast? (El Nino Update)

Discussion started by robweather 1 month ago

We are edging closer and closer to the start of a weak El Nino and some of the mid and long range models are hinting at a system coming down from Alaska. This weather system would bring rain for a good portion of the West Coast near November 1st. 

EUROPEAN MODEL
NOVEMBER 1

               Screen Shot 2014-10-22 at 6.57.40 PM  Screen Shot 2014-10-22 at 6.57.56 PM

The European Model ECMWF shows a storm diving down from the Gulf of Alaska with plenty of rain and wind and yeah maybe some snow in the usual ski resorts inland. This is a good sign for the drought in California and the west.

GFS (USA BASED) MODEL

NOVEMBER 1

Screen Shot 2014-10-22 at 7.04.34 PM  Screen Shot 2014-10-22 at 7.04.47 PM

The GFS (Global Forecast System) shows a weaker storm than the Euro model but the same storm track overall. We start to look for trending in models about ten days out so this is a good sign when both mid/long rang models start to agree 5-10 days away from a storm.  The best chance for moderate to heavy rain is Central California. Northern California has a shot at some rain too with Southern Cal on the edge of some decent rain.

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Did you know?

There have been 8 weak El Ninos since 1950 and 6 had snow in November!