August is going to follow July's lead with more rain in the East, Ohio Valley and Southeast and Drier and warmer in the West and Pacific Northwest. Philadelphia now has seen it's wettest summer ever and some other big cities may follow in a few weeks.
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REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS THIS SUMMER
AUGUST WILL BE WET AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
EARLY WET SEPTEMBER...TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE LIKELY
WETTER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AUGUST
COASTAL AND GULF HURRICANE LIKELY IN SEPT.
OHIO VALLEY & MIDWEST
AUGUST WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WETTER
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND RAINFALL FOR SEPTEMBER
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS, RAIN IS NORMAL
NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL AND TEMPS FOR SEPT.
WEST COAST / PAC NORTHWEST
HOTTER & DRIER THAN NORMAL AUG.
NEAR NORMAL RAIN AND TEMPS FOR SEPT.
WARMER THAN NORMAL...MONSOON IS ABOVE AVG. FOR AUGUST
WETTER THAN NORMAL... TEMPS BELOW NORMAL SEPTEMBER
Step away from the ledge John. Finally the climate modelers are catching up with the slow-down or pause in global warming over the last decade. Where the best estimate for the IPCC was 3.3 degrees C with a range of 2.0 to 4.5C, Otto et al have revised the best estimate to 2C, with a range of 1.2C – 3.9C
We don't know as much as we think we do when it comes to the earth's climate control mechanisms.
A very chilly Spring in Chicagoland with March and April well below normal, though May is near normal. Also second wettest on record, so no drought this year. All this rain will definitely be influencing summer temperatures here.
Excuse me but I think people need to wake up. I don't think its just me because having 4 record breaking summers in a row is not normal. If you look at the climate prediction center website, most of the country will have above average temperatures for the rest of the year and into 2014. It shows that this world is quickly going to hell.
I'm thinking the same thing for the Midwest east of the Mississippi. Why? All this rain, wet soils will act as a feedback generating more clouds and rain which will lead to troughing over the east. The ridge this summer will probably be further west than last summer.
On the other hand, I found a analog for Chicago. Spring 1947 was quite cool here, with April being the wettest on record (up until yesterday, where the record was beaten). May was cool, June was extremely cool (7th coolest June, and 8th coolest July in terms of average high temperature), but a steamy August (actually hottest on record). September and especially October were warmer than average. Seems that there are some parallels so far this year (Spring). I certainly hope for a warmer May-July period than in 1947! I love my heat. Last summer was PERFECT.
Rob, what is going in with this backward spring? I'm not complaining. I love the cool. I know you are predicting hot summer because of a neutral pattern, but could there be some other dynamics here that could result in a cooler summer forecast?
Rob, TWC just released some disturbing data yesterday. Projects for a cooler than average summer for the great lakes reigon, including Chicago. Please, say it ain't so Rob!!! I need my summer temps. It's the only thinga that gets me through our neverending winters!
The winter outlook hit in some places and missed in others. Syracuse ended with 115" and we had over 40 cities with more than 50" of snow. I think the Philly area to DC had some problems but New England and the Midwest worked out well in many places.
The summer outlook is a bit easier because so many focus on that snowfall number vs temps in the summer. We see another hot summer simply due to a neutral pattern. Like any outlook they are just that an outlook. No offense taken Paul I like comments good or bad.
If rains only stick around the Midwest for a couple of weeks this April, then yes, the impact might not be much for the summer. However, if we get some healthy rains in May as well, then summer temps could be effected.
Rob, I don't want this to sound like a "knock" because it's not meant to be. But since the Winter Outlook was what I would consider to be a bust, not just here but by most of the meteorologists. How much stock should we put into the Summer Outlook, or any long range outlook? Again, this is not intended to be a 'slam', if it was I wouldn't even be a member here. Thanks
Well, you were right about march being colder than Normal. I've got my long johns on tonight in central louisiana. Two of my tomato plants died last night even though I covered them up. I hope your summer prediction for hotter than normal for the south is wrong. But your past outlooks have been fairly accurate.
Rob, do you still expect summer to come on in full force in June? With this cold weather pattern, I'm a little worried this will be the the year without a summer. Do you think it is possible we'll hit the 80s on a consistent basis by May here in Virginia? At this point, I think we'll be fortunate just to recover to normal the next 2 weeks.... baby steps first