We are now into mid May and yeah it's was a slow start to spring for some in the Midwest and East but it's never to early to think BBQ's fun at the pool or lake or that drive to the beach. So I've looked ahead and we're most likely hanging into a neutral pattern or the start of a weak La Nina.
Excuse me but I think people need to wake up. I don't think its just me because having 4 record breaking summers in a row is not normal. If you look at the climate prediction center website, most of the country will have above average temperatures for the rest of the year and into 2014. It shows that this world is quickly going to hell.
I'm thinking the same thing for the Midwest east of the Mississippi. Why? All this rain, wet soils will act as a feedback generating more clouds and rain which will lead to troughing over the east. The ridge this summer will probably be further west than last summer.
On the other hand, I found a analog for Chicago. Spring 1947 was quite cool here, with April being the wettest on record (up until yesterday, where the record was beaten). May was cool, June was extremely cool (7th coolest June, and 8th coolest July in terms of average high temperature), but a steamy August (actually hottest on record). September and especially October were warmer than average. Seems that there are some parallels so far this year (Spring). I certainly hope for a warmer May-July period than in 1947! I love my heat. Last summer was PERFECT.
Rob, what is going in with this backward spring? I'm not complaining. I love the cool. I know you are predicting hot summer because of a neutral pattern, but could there be some other dynamics here that could result in a cooler summer forecast?
Rob, TWC just released some disturbing data yesterday. Projects for a cooler than average summer for the great lakes reigon, including Chicago. Please, say it ain't so Rob!!! I need my summer temps. It's the only thinga that gets me through our neverending winters!
The winter outlook hit in some places and missed in others. Syracuse ended with 115" and we had over 40 cities with more than 50" of snow. I think the Philly area to DC had some problems but New England and the Midwest worked out well in many places.
The summer outlook is a bit easier because so many focus on that snowfall number vs temps in the summer. We see another hot summer simply due to a neutral pattern. Like any outlook they are just that an outlook. No offense taken Paul I like comments good or bad.
If rains only stick around the Midwest for a couple of weeks this April, then yes, the impact might not be much for the summer. However, if we get some healthy rains in May as well, then summer temps could be effected.
Rob, I don't want this to sound like a "knock" because it's not meant to be. But since the Winter Outlook was what I would consider to be a bust, not just here but by most of the meteorologists. How much stock should we put into the Summer Outlook, or any long range outlook? Again, this is not intended to be a 'slam', if it was I wouldn't even be a member here. Thanks
Well, you were right about march being colder than Normal. I've got my long johns on tonight in central louisiana. Two of my tomato plants died last night even though I covered them up. I hope your summer prediction for hotter than normal for the south is wrong. But your past outlooks have been fairly accurate.
Rob, do you still expect summer to come on in full force in June? With this cold weather pattern, I'm a little worried this will be the the year without a summer. Do you think it is possible we'll hit the 80s on a consistent basis by May here in Virginia? At this point, I think we'll be fortunate just to recover to normal the next 2 weeks.... baby steps first
Humidity kills me in my chosen profession as a welder rob. With near normal to above normal temps and below normal rainfall, do You think this could result in lower humidity for my Louisiana area In your outlook?