March is just not going to let winter go at this point. I see several severe and snow events the first half of the month and some are gonna be wild.
Both the NAO and AO are heading down and this means in early March you increase the chance of a major nor'easter with severe weather down south. Is this a guarantee...no but I like the better than average odds right now.
I expect to see the Midwest to hog the snow and ice the next 7 days heading into the first weekend in March than the east coast has a shot a March 7-15 type of nor'easter.
The map above is the next 6-10 days of weather as far as temps from normal. You can see the East/Midwest and Southeast will be much cooler than normal for March 2-6th.
The map above shows below normal temps for pretty much the first half of the month in blue. East cool west milder than normal.
OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2013 BY REGION
Southwest (AZ TX NM)
Warmer than normal esp. March 5-10th as the cold air heads east, Second half of the month is slightly above normal. Overall below normal precip and above normal temps
West Coast (CA WA OR)
California is above normal in temps and near normal in precip statewide with the warmer weather in early to Mid March. Expect the Northwest to be near normal in temps and above normal in rainfall and snow.
Mountain West (CO NM IA NE ND SD WY UT ID MT)
Denver gets another snowstorm to help catch up to the snow drought earlier in the winter and temps are below normal for the Rockies for a bit but overall above normal mid and late month.
Upper Midwest & Ohio Valley (IL IN MI WI MN OH WV KY)
Small snow events start to end with the chill in the first half of the month replaces with a late March wamrth and severe outbreak.
Southeast (FL GA MS AL NC SC VA TN)
It starts colder than normal the first half of the month and than really warms up with the temps and possible severe weather. This area could see the greatest change in weather from one week to the next.
Mid Atlantic (PA NJ DE MD DC)
Colder start to the first half of the month with one nor'easter still possible before the 15th. After that spring rolls in slowly but surely esp. late month.
Northeast & New England (NY LI CT NH ME VT MA ME)
Colder than normal first half of the month...warmer than normal the last week. 1-2 more snow and ice events in the first 15 days of the month.
Fantastic post Rob! March wants to hold on to winter, so let it be! It's going to be a crazy 3 week period coming up so, so what if tonight is a bust because we have more threats possibly next week. Speaking of next week rob, hows the friday threat looking because i'm hearing some news about it and it has caught my attention. Also their is another one on its heels about 2-3 days after that looks promising due to blocking!! We will finally have our -NAO and should make things down the road interesting!
Rob, how will "la nada" play into your spring/summer outlook? I don't know if you checked out the pacific la nada limbo article I posted and how it stated la nada just screws with long range forecasting.