So we take a deeper look ahead into 2013 and one thing that stands out is the NEUTRAL pattern we are in right now and how it will remain right through the summer. now the charts below do start to lean toward an El Nino by the end of summer but how strong will that really be this far out?
A stronger El Nino typically means a weaker hurricane season with less storms and a lower amount of Category 3+ storms (major hurricanes).
This chart above shows a lean to El Nino but at the end of the fall we're talking 33%.
Beverly, above normal precipitation/thunderstorms, (southern jet enhancement, dry lines, additional lift...). However, the nino that I and Rob for that matter are forecasting will be weak and too late for the height of severe weather season, we'll see.