Spring in the meteorological world is defined as March 1 to May 31 but the calendar goes by March 21 to June 21...either way you slice it we'll be seeing some severe weather action in all three months. It appears the severe weather season may be slightly above average as far as total severe storms and tornadoes.
So that is a graph of the extremes in tornadoes across the USA so will we break the all-time record set in 2004 ? No. I don't see an active enough jet stream and the lack of El Nino or La Nina to create the extreme tornado season at this point.
MOST EVER 1,817 (2004)
LAST YEAR 1,072
2011 SEASON 1,700
AVERAGE LAST 10 YEARS 1,300
THIS SPRING 2013 (PREDICTED 1,150)
So now that we have our total predicted tornadoes who gets a big tornado season this spring? I do think this year Oklahoma, Texas and even Minnesota have an above average tornado season with below average in the Ohio Valley and Southeast.
What causes a tornado ?
Tornadoes can be a very complex machine eventhough we get about 1,000+ a year only 2% of all thunderstorms carry tornadoes.
So lets see how all of this forms on the big scale of things.
I think the outbreaks of tornadoes will come in waves. Ok so lets move onto temps and precip across the USA. This is from the CPC Climate Prediction Center...
The spring outlook below is pretty much what we see along with the CPC (Climate Prediction Center). Expect a slow return to warmer than normal temps and temps to above normal the next 3 months in the desert southwest.
The pattern shows showers and ample moisture for the Midwest esp. the Chicago area for April and May. The west will stay below normal for rainfall once again as the drought rolls on.
So do I agree with the forecast above ? Yes I do but I believe March will be colder than normal for the east overall and it sure was for many locations. April and May will make a comeback...maybe slowly at first but warmer than normal temps are on the way.
That March forecast is a complete bust. April will probably be normal to below normal as the AO index will struggle to go into positive territory, and the Greenland Block just wont break down. If anything May might be a warm one for the Central and Eastern US
Rob, I know you are busy, but I respectfully ask that you please answer my question. Will this severe threat extend into the Northeast? I absolutley LOVE thunderstorms and the more severe the better! I speciffically mean West/Central Massachusetts and Connecticut and Rhode Island. Do you see (if possible to see) any tornadoes in the Northeast this Spring/Summer? Please answer me! Have a good day Rob!