As of January 4th we still see an active second half of the month...
We are gonna start the year with a positive NAO. We have a few stormy periods in January but also a few breaks from winter. The overall idea is to watch 1-2 weeks out at a time. The chart above is more like projections based on the ebb and flow of the NAO and AO.
MY THINKING AT THIS POINT...
The cold air in the east and Midwest will actually slow the stormy pattern down for the first week of January.
After that the pattern may try and get a few storm either near the East Coast or come in through the Midwest. This period has one of change as the NAO and AO start to dip again into a stormy period.
Later in the month will feature a few stormy periods but a period of warmth too. I find the later part of the month one of wide swings in the weather esp. in the south with severe weather...a severe/bliizard outbreak in one storm and colder weather near February.
The west coast will continue a parade of storms the next few weeks.
So is this winter going to be warmer than last winter? NOAA's long range forecasts have gotten me WORRIED!! They show deep reds the next 2 weeks and the January 2013 outlook features the same thing. Reds... This winter is such a fake and a rip off. When is the cold coming to the east, Rob?
Rob, Rob, Rob. PLEASE tell me there is some hope here in the Charlotte, NC area in January or February. When you mentioned a severe/blizzard outbreak in one storm and colder weather near February were you referring to the East Coast and how far south? This has been the most boring winter as last year. It seems that we get spurts of cold air but, timing is never right. The Ohio River Valley has had their share; I would just like to see 2 decent snow storms here in Charlotte before winter comes to an end. CAN YOU PLEASE GIVE ME A RESPONSE AS TO YOUR THINKING ON NC?? Thanks Rob. I have enjoyed reading all of your blogs and updates. Bill