Green is a possible outcome...Red we are dismissing
GFS- Low stays well to the south and goes out to sea. Snow for NC/SC!
EURO- Big Snow Storm for Virginia and North Carolina into Ocean City, MD and Southern DE!! Significant snow gets into DC and S NJ. Philly gets brushed with it and only 2" on this run.
GGEM- NYC to New England Major Snow Storm. Snow for DC-PHL 2-5"
UKMET- Only goes to 144hr but looks like a big hit for the Middle Atlantic and Northeast.
GFS ENSEMBLES- North and West of operational
EURO ENSEMBLES- Overall it is in agreement with the Euro. Could argue the precip shield would be more north slightly as low departs more north than operational.
GGEM ENSEMBLES- Disagree almost a 100% with the operational (so much for the upgrade!) This says we should discount the GGEM. Most ensembles miss Philly and show bulk of precip to the South similar to the heavy snow area on the Euro.
The GFS continues to show the solution of a southern track going offshore from the Carolinas. The reasoning is the strong vortex/trough to the northeast that follows the storm preventing the northward movement. In the frame above you can also see how it prevents the system from taken a neg. tilt preventing the "explosive development" shown by the European.
Yes precip is shown well inland, but keep in mind this an average of all the ensembles. By following the GFS individual ensembles and seeing this I am fairly certain we are still seeing a split between the aggressive solutions similar to the older Euro and the other solution that supports the operational. But the mean of the ensembles takes the low more NW of the operational.
Impressive low is well north of the other models and redevelops offshore as seen below. This transfer to the coast happens too late for Philadelphia to benefit. Initial front end snow will be impressive with a band of 2-5" from Philly to DCA. However, with the transfer this area gets the dry slot from the miller b redevelopment. Inverted trough sets up as storm begins to capture placing heavy snow over LI and NYC. As the storm comes back toward the coast a major event unfolds for New England.
A little inaccurate on my second image the upper level low should be a tad more west. But the point here is the upper level low over Lake Michigan opens up and dives down into the base of the trough. The dream solution for VA/NC. This cuts the low off NC as the flow buckles and the storm merges with this energy producing a long lasting snow event. Remember the older euro run showed this upper level mow merging with our system farther north and delivered a foot or more of snow for Philly.
The Euro is "Scary consistent" with this idea even without the support thus far from ensembles. This is the third run in a row and it is telling us one major thing. That is a very big snow storm is in store for someone. And the difference from a low closing off of NC and the low closing off NC/VA border is the difference of a foot of snow to 2" for Philly.
That statement cannot be 100% correct since NYC got a lot of snow with the NC/VA closed low, so you would assume that precip would shift to Philly with the latest track. But it does not because the southern stream s/w speeds up into the "traffic" departing trough. This prevents any northward transport of the precip shield. We need these two features to separate more so more can benefit from the snow and Philly and DC get in on the action.
The snow doesnt like Philly, 7 inches ha you suck. 19 inches in NYC. Anyway, Bernie Rayno from accuweather is calling for this storm to move right up the east coast all the way up to Maine. We will see. And Philly blows go move to Boston or some ****
12z euro misses south even more. Why anyone got excited about a snowstorm here from a model 8 days out ill need know, especially this winter. Euro looks like gfs. This setup doesn't bring a snowstorm to Philly. Enjoy the high clouds next Thursday. Winter is officially over after that run.
Well another miss south. Blocking is just way to strong. We miss north we miss south. Whoever thinks its "finally" going to go our way march 6th be realistic. It's not going to snow this winter. This storm will stay south of us. This storm is here to break down the -nao were about to have. Just south of us. We need the ull in the North Atlantic to move out sooner to get this up the coast or else we will get ZERO height rises on the Atlantic with it suppressing.
Right now the chance of this missing Philly north is 90% IMO.
With previous trends, including this winter, and last, I just don't see the possibility of this storm. (In Philly area) The EURO was proclaiming snowpocalypse the last storm too. I love snow (and farts) just as much as everyone else on here, but remember what the pro-mets say: Follow the Trends... and the trend this year is go south or go north of the Philly area for snow.
A Debbie Downer lol. I'm speaking how I feel and how see this panning out based off consistency and trends. I am not being a downer. Sorry I am not saying what you want to hear Lee. You can edit your comments BTW.
I've read that and I understand, but to me we are wishcasting this storm. It has been a consistent big hit for the area of VA 8 runs in a row on the EURO. Sure it can come North, but I think the general idea is Central DE south for this one. I hope I am wrong, but I just cannot jump on this bandwagon. No offense to anyone who is already riding LOL. AND central-southern, I'm the border basically.
98 you really can't look at now th models are portraying the track seeing that it is exactly a week out. Look at my post below and I'll say what I think the models aren't seeing, the rising NAO. Are u southern jersey?