Euro Model...March Snow Storm in a week (Philadelphia DC Baltimore New York City Boston

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Euro Model...March Snow Storm in a week (Philadelphia DC Baltimore New York City Boston

So we all remember Sandy...some of you remember the two winter storms in November that blasted parts of PA and NJ with 13" of snow. If the parameters line up just right we'll get the negative tilt of a storm we have not seen since the Blizzard in New England and have not seen at all in the PA NJ MD DC area all winter (last 2 years to be precise).

This is NOT A FORECAST but more of an outlook for a week from now. I like the Euro trends but want to see the GFS get a bit more on board. The blocking is there.,...the NAO and AO are staying oh yeah but we have still a few things to work on before you and I get all excited.

WHEN: WED NIGHT TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON

WHAT: SLOW NOR'EASTER OFF BLOCKING PATTERN

WHERE: DC NORTH TO BOSTON MA

ODDS RIGHT NOW: 3:1 for Philadelphia....4:1 Baltimore...NYC 5:1

HOT MODEL RIGHT NOW: EURO (ECMWF)

NAO INDEX: GOOD

AO INDEX: GREAT

BLOCKING: GOOD

THE GOOD: THE PATTERN

THE BAD: IT'S MARCH

Blog started by rob guarino , on 82 days ago

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John Manetta

Ronda and Jeff, anyone would be a fool to hypothesize the location of a rain/snow line at this point. I will say this though, if this system is close enough that it is a hecs, then it would be a battle between dynamic cooling and onshore winds (the dynamic cooling winning the battle for most), however if the system tracked in such a manner that the winds kept a more northerly component to them, that and the dynamic cooling would help greatly, it will be fun to forecast regardless of the outcome, though I know that I'm not the only one that want's to see a hecs or even a mecs (let's face it I'd be happy with anything hahaha). P.S. Jeff, I lived in Suffolk county for many years and I can tell you that there, you'd probably be alright, most definitely far better off than southeast coastal NJ.

81 days ago

Jeff Vitkun

Hey Rob,
Are you thinking all rain for us here in Suffolk, Long Island??? Just need to know if I need to put the plow on my truck again!!!
Thanks, Jeff.

81 days ago

Adnorl

Rob,
I just read on one of the other weather sites that this could be rain/wind near the coast and snow inland. That is always the kiss of death for SNJ. What are your feelings regarding this?

82 days ago

SgtSnow

Keep hope alive

82 days ago

Brenda L.

So what about for me in Lynchburg, VA? I really want one more good snow before spring comes. Yes, im ready for spring. definitely! but im still holding on to hope it can still snow. The weatherman said the potential is there for us to experience the heaviest snowfall of this winter next week. Then after that mid-late March can come out like a lamb :)

82 days ago

Marcus wild

Haha yeah I know. I was just getting into weather around that storm rob, so I just recall it missing, horribly. I know the 'setup' seems to be about the same..just not the whole loopty loop deal.

If the euro shows this again tonight, awesome. I'm giving this storm until Monday to be on models, before I'm model watching and doing the whole crazy thing.

82 days ago

rob guarino

The idea on that storm was to go to New England and loop back around down into the NYC/NJ area. That just does not happen. This is nothing like that so we'll see. Marcus you are brutal LOL love it.

82 days ago

Sam

Anybody see 12z ensemble runs?

82 days ago

weatherman71

Bolaris blizzard was March 5th, so the date is pretty close. I remember watching the forecast snowfall numbers dropping by the hour, till we were left with an inch and a half of slop.

82 days ago

Marcus wild

Top analog for this setup is march 2001. Ask John bolaris how that storm went.

82 days ago

rob guarino

Lauren.,...

March is gonna be a roller coaster month...

82 days ago

Lauren

But I'm ready for 68 and sunny now...! ;)

82 days ago

Jorge Pardo

Hey at least it is something to view and hope about. Hard to believe based on past history this winter, but you need to figure that it has to happen at some pt. They can't all be misses - can they?????

Euro Model...March Snow Storm in a week (Philadelphia DC Baltimore New York City Boston

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