For those that read the original blog below, this is a follow up on what is going on with the MJO. The MJO was forecasted by most to stay in phase 5 and phase 6 into March. Below I argued we are going into the phase 7 and 8 as we head into March. Based off the latest observations the latest Euro projection shows this:
After spending a week in phase 4 the MJO ran through phase 5 in 3 days and shows no signs of stopping. The only reason we did not see this enter the neutral or COD zone is because of the upper air divergence in the wake of this signal. The upper level divergence led to the development of the tropical systems below:
Below is current IR:
We are still in a phase 6 but notice that the convection elsewhere is enhanced in the mjo phase 7-8 areas. The tropical cyclones are showing a weakening sign with the lack of convection in the later frames along with most of the convection associated with the monsoon trough in South China Sea extending towards Gulf of Thailand (minus the thunderstorm cluster currently above).
The mountain torque I expected did happen:
What does this all mean?
Expect March to come in with a favorable MJO signal to give us our best shot for a winter storm from March 5-18th. Right now March 5th has been showing up more to our south and the March 11th threat has had a strong signal on the GFS and Euro Ensembles. Continue to watch models become more impressive with threats down the road as they play catch up with the MJO.
The MJO should shoot through phase 6 into 7 very quickly (next few days). From there the signal should remain strong into 8 with continued support for a west based -NAO.
February 21st Update-------------
The pattern is going to be as good as one can hope for if you like snow in the Middle Atlantic and Northeast. This is based off unanimous support from the models and ensemble members:
Both GFS ensembles and Euro agree on a west based NAO and +PNA. This favors the ridging out West with a trough in the east. This favors the big snow storms, but does not guarantee them unfortunately. The Euro ensembles love the cold/trough hanging on in the Eastern US into the first half of March:
The only thing wrong here is the MJO is forecasted by some guidance to proceed into phase 5 which is a phase that would argue for a strong SE ridge. That is mostly the GFS suite. Another popular idea is to crash it into the COD not call of duty but (circle of death) not the drinking game but the neutral phase of the MJO. Most models including the Euro take it into the COD and out into phase 6. The Japanese model and ensembles shoot it across the COD and into phase 8-1.
Above is the Phase 8 which looks like our pattern we are heading into!
Which one is going to be right?
Well lets look at where we are currently at:
The argument here can be made that the convection in Madagascar is leftover forcing from the phase 3. But the other 2 areas 1) around the dateline and 2) S America to Africa. With these two areas of convection on the rise in the latest IR frames it is telling us that the forcing is weakening over the Maritime Continent. So check mark for the models going into the COD.
The current frictional torque event is finally declining somewhat, but it usually is a precursor to a significant positive mountain torque event. We can see in the latest data from the 19th that the East Asia MT is headed north into positive territory. All signs point to this being a positive MT event especially with convection heading into those green circled area.
What does this mean?
It means the support is increasing for the forcing to shift towards the dateline and for the MJO to head into the COD and come out into phase 7 or 8 as we head into March.
Hey Kevin when do you think the warm air finally rushes in here fro spring?? We have two weeks now til day light savings time starts and it would be great for a warm weekend right about that time. I'm actually starting to look at the models for the storm that will break this crappy pattern and torch the east coast! lol
I know most want snow but when March gets here I'm ready to get my yard in shape and do some spring cleaning and riding. Snow this time of the year is mush the next day anyway. Bring on some sun and heat. Time to golf! You with me Rebel??
WOW Mike so much details! I am anticipating a snow storm before the end of Winter for me. I bet it will surprise some people too. Maybe not on this site but the ones who think winter is over I work with and don't give two craps about it haha!
What I don't like is the models all seem to want to set up the ridge too far east. Obviously a long way to go, but I am too very very skeptical at this point. I think we are going to be envious of our neighbors to the north and east again, but I reamin "hopeful" b/c after this I think March warms up and this really is our last shot.
Uh oh, the reappearance of BMR. That can't be a good thing(just messin with ya). He has been quiet as of late with the below normal temps, so when I see him make a return that tells me that spring isn't far away. Anyway, I like the pattern, but I have a serious concern with the amount of cold air in the pattern. Just because you have all the right elements doesn't mean there is cold air to tap, and I see a lack of true arctic air in the pattern, and that is important as climatology starts working against us. By the way, Bryzgalov sucks!! Amnesty that dork outta here!!!!
so far what I can say is that lately temps have been averaging a lot colder than forecasted and modeled so this is a bi product of your NAO Blocking with a NNW flow aloft..
how this storm coming at us now from the mid-west that gave a lot of snow to St. Louis today and the energy in the southeastern states with copius amounts of moisture off the sub trop jet will really give us clues what to expect I think over the next 10 days!!! I am proceeding with caution but you have to like what you are seeing from the ensembles and teleconnectors to about March 6th!
As much as I would like to bite here I just cant yet..... the models the past two years have grossly overplayed the Eastern trough and blocking.... typically I would say go with what youve got.. and thats nothing ...lol
however, on a bright note... the last time kansas city received a foot of snow(prior to today) was February 24th, 1993.... Three weeks later we all know w hat happened